Finance
German inflation unexpectedly dips to 2% in February
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 27, 2026
3 min readLast updated: February 27, 2026
Quick Summary
Germany’s EU-harmonised inflation eased to around the ECB’s 2% target in February, helped by softer energy prices and a firmer euro. The print reinforces expectations the ECB will keep its deposit rate at 2.0% after holding steady on Feb. 5, even as euro area inflation has already slipped below targ
German Inflation Eases to 2% in February as Energy Costs Fall
German Inflation, ECB Outlook, and Labour Market Update
Report and Key Inflation Figures
By Rene Wagner and Matthias Williams
BERLIN, Feb 27 (Reuters) - German inflation unexpectedly eased to 2% in February, pushed down by falling energy costs, provisional data showed on Friday, following a softening of price growth across the euro zone and expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast inflation, which is European Union-harmonised, to remain unchanged from the 2.1% reported for January. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, stayed at 2.5 percent.
"Inflation in Germany remains in the green," said Ulrich Kater, chief economist at DekaBank. "Price increases have been dampened in recent months by lower energy prices and a strong euro against the U.S. dollar."
Broader Economic Signals in Germany
Other sets of economic indicators released on Friday offered a mixed picture for Germany, with unemployment remaining above the 3 million mark as years of stagnation in Europe's largest economy took a toll.
ECB Policy Context and Euro Zone Inflation
The European Central Bank (ECB) has targeted a 2% inflation rate in the medium term and its President Christine Lagarde said on Monday said inflation and interest rate policy remained in a "good place".
Euro zone inflation fell to a 16-month low of 1.7% in January, prompting some policymakers to warn price growth could slow too much and that the ECB must be ready to act.
"The ECB will maintain its current course for the time being," said Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank.
Labour Market Struggles With Momentum
Unemployment, Politics, and Growth Measures
LABOUR MARKET STRUGGLES WITH MOMENTUM
The number of unemployed people in Germany fell slightly, according to labour office figures. But in remaining above 3 million it underscores the challenge facing Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government, which has vowed to boost growth after two years of contraction and will fight several state elections this year, starting next month.
Merz has pledged to pull Germany out of its downturn by sharply boosting infrastructure and defence spending, but the impact of those measures is taking longer than expected to materialise on the ground.
Analyst Commentary on Structural Challenges
"...With the economy effectively stagnating for more than five years and industry facing severe structural challenges, a deterioration in the labour market was inevitable," said a note from ING THINK economic and financial analysis.
"All in all, today's labour market report sends a mixed message but definitely no signs of a turning point. Instead, the gradual worsening looks set to continue."
Real Wages and Household Purchasing Power
Real wages continued to recover, up 1.9% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2024, but still below the level seen in 2019 as the inflation shocks after the start of the pandemic and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine ate into spending power.
(Reporting by René Wagner, Matthias Williams, Klaus Lauer and Linda PasquiniEditing by Peter Graff)
Key Takeaways
- •Germany’s February inflation surprise fits a wider euro-area disinflation trend: Eurostat’s flash estimate put euro area HICP at 1.7% in January 2026, down from 2.0% in December, with energy a key drag (energy −4.1% y/y). (ec.europa.eu)
- •Policy backdrop: the ECB has been holding its benchmark deposit rate at 2.0% (most recently on Feb. 5, 2026), and Lagarde has said policy is in a “good place,” suggesting no urgency to change rates on a single inflation print. (ft.com)
- •Germany’s cooling prices contrast with a labour market still showing limited momentum: the Federal Employment Agency reported unemployment exceeded 3 million in January 2026 (3.085m), underscoring the growth challenge as inflation pressure fades. (arbeitsagentur.de)
References
Frequently Asked Questions about German inflation unexpectedly dips to 2% in February
1What was German EU-harmonised inflation in February?
Provisional data showed German EU-harmonised inflation eased to 2% in February.
2What happened to Germany’s core inflation in February?
Core inflation, excluding food and energy, stayed at 2.5%.
3Why did German inflation fall in February?
The dip was pushed down by falling energy costs, with price increases dampened by lower energy prices and a strong euro against the U.S. dollar.
4What is the ECB’s inflation target and what was said about policy?
The ECB targets 2% inflation in the medium term, and President Christine Lagarde said inflation and interest rate policy were in a “good place.”
5What did the labour market data indicate for Germany?
Unemployment remained above 3 million even as the number of unemployed fell slightly, and the report was described as mixed with no sign of a turning point.
