Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on April 8, 2026
2 min readLast updated: April 8, 2026
Add as preferred source on GoogleA recent Allianz Trade survey shows 83% of German exporters expect export revenues to outperform the global average in 2026, despite rising risks from geopolitical tensions, supply‑chain issues and payment delays.
By Maria Martinez
BERLIN, April 8 (Reuters) - German exporters are still broadly optimistic about growth in overseas sales despite the Iran war, although concerns over payment delays, supply chains and geopolitical risks are rising, Allianz Trade said on Wednesday.
In a survey taken before the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, the trade credit insurer said 83% of German firms still expected export revenues to rise in 2026 above the global average of 75%. Some 6,000 companies across 13 markets participated in the survey.
Most German exporters expect only moderate growth over the next 12 months, however, and sentiment remains fragile.
TRADE WAR WORRIES OUTWEIGH MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT
Allianz Trade said the impact of the Iran war on exporters' expectations had so far been limited compared with the shock caused by trade tensions in 2025.
At the same time, German firms were more pessimistic about the fallout of the U.S. trade war than they were immediately after "Liberation Day" a year ago when U.S. President Donald Trump announced his tariff plans, with 49% expecting negative effects in 2026.
Nearly half of German exporters expect worsening payment behaviour and 40% envisage a rise in payment defaults.
The biggest risks cited in the survey were geopolitical tensions, supply-chain disruption, and payment delays.
Allianz Trade said Europe and Asia were becoming more attractive destinations for future export growth, while the U.S. was losing appeal.
(Reporting by Maria MartinezEditing by Madeline Chambers)
According to Allianz Trade, German exporters remain broadly optimistic about overseas sales, with 83% expecting export revenues to rise in 2026 despite concerns over the Iran conflict.
The primary risks identified are geopolitical tensions, supply-chain disruption, and payment delays.
Exporter sentiment was surveyed before the ceasefire, with the Iran war having limited impact compared to the shock from U.S. trade tensions.
Europe and Asia have become more attractive destinations for German exporters, while the U.S. is losing appeal.
According to the survey, 49% of German exporters expect negative effects from the U.S. trade war in 2026.
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