Coinbase holds edge in US crypto race even as rivals' public listings reshape landscape

By Manya Saini

(Reuters) -Coinbase's first-mover advantage as the only publicly traded crypto exchange helped it top earnings estimates again, but competition is looming from clearer rules and newly listed companies, Wall Street analysts said on Friday.

The global crypto market has swelled to $3.7 trillion as institutional and retail investors pour money into digital assets. President Donald Trump has eased regulatory hurdles in the United States after taking office in January, driving bitcoin to record highs and paving the way for the industry's biggest players to tap public markets.

"While we think regulatory clarity for cryptocurrency and stablecoins will remain a positive tailwind for volume, it will also likely lead to additional competition," analysts at brokerage Morningstar said, adding Coinbase's premium pricing will likely face increasing pressure. 

Gemini, the crypto exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, listed on the Nasdaq in September. Rival Bullish went public in August, while Kraken is reportedly preparing to list in the first half of 2026.

The growing roster of public crypto exchanges signals a maturing market and poses the strongest challenge yet to Coinbase's dominance.

"Coinbase has established itself as the most institutionally trusted crypto company in the world. That said, we remain cautious on the retail outlook given rising competition and management's recent comments around customers wanting to trade more than just crypto," Piper Sandler analysts wrote in a note. 

Coinbase ranks third among the top crypto spot exchanges globally on crypto analytics provider CoinMarketCap, trailing Binance and Bybit. It beat Wall Street estimates for third-quarter profit after the bell on Thursday, underpinned by a surge in trading volume.

On a post-earnings call, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said regulatory clarity in the U.S. and globally is starting to bear fruit, helping drive growth in the crypto sector, but added it means "that lots of new competition is coming in and so we need to make sure we're executing well". 

The company has expanded its product portfolio through a string of acquisitions in recent years, including a $2.9 billion deal for derivatives exchange Deribit in May and a $375 million purchase of investment platform Echo earlier this month. 

CFO Alesia Haas added "we've always faced competition", noting that Coinbase has continued to grow its market share, scale and trading volume.

Analysts expect Coinbase to continue its acquisition spree.

"We think the M&A door remains very much open for future acquisitions and strategic investments," J.P. Morgan analysts said. 

"With a leading market position and solid industry and government relationships, we think Coinbase is in an advantaged position to submit competitive bids as an aggressive acquirer." 

Shares of the crypto exchange were last up 5% in premarket trading. 

(Reporting by Manya Saini in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri)