Stocks to Watch as Trump’s New 15% Tariff Revives Market Uncertainty

Feb 23 (Reuters) - Tariff uncertainty is back after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new 15% duty following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down his broader levies last week.

Domestic lumber product makers fell on Monday on fears of pricing pressure from cheaper imports while Wall Street analysts expected emerging market-focused exchange-traded funds and retailers to eventually benefit.

Sector and Regional Impact of New Tariffs

Here are stocks, ETFs and sectors that could be impacted by the latest twist in the U.S. trade policy:

Retail and Consumer

RETAIL AND CONSUMER

Beneficiaries: Best Buy, Ralph Lauren, Nike

Jefferies analysts highlighted consumer electronics retailer Best Buy, luxury brand Ralph Lauren and sportswear giant Nike as among those likely to benefit the most from a reduction of tariffs.

Additional Winners: Target, Elf Beauty

Others who stand to benefit include big-box retailer Target and Elf Beauty, according to Jefferies.

Tariff Changes for Toys and Sports Equipment

Toys, sports equipment and games, which had a very high tariff rate early on, may gain as the new levy that Trump is imposing will be 4% lower than earlier, analysts at Morgan Stanley said.

E-Commerce Companies

E-COMMERCE COMPANIES

BofA View: Mixed Impact on Small/Midcaps

Small and midcap e-commerce stocks are likely to have a mixed impact, according to BofA Global Research.

Stocks Rallied Post-Ruling: Etsy, eBay, Wayfair, Chewy

Etsy, eBay, Wayfair and Chewy had rallied following the ruling on Friday. However, Trump's new global tariff is likely to inject ambiguity.

Etsy Most Insulated by Diversified Trade Routes

Etsy stands to be the most immune to tariff volatility, according to BofA, given its diversification across trade routes and countries, where about half of its buyer and seller network is outside the U.S., with no single import country making up more than 4% of total gross sales.

Chewy and Wayfair Least Impacted

Online pet products retailer Chewy and Wayfair are likely to be least impacted, with the furniture platform among those that have adapted to last year's tariffs already, the brokerage said.

Paper, Lumber and Packaging

PAPER, LUMBER AND PACKAGING

Local Edge Reduced vs. Cheaper Imports

The tariff ruling is likely to reduce the competitive edge that local packaging and lumber companies had over cheaper imports, analysts said.

Negative Impact: Clearwater, Rayonier, Sylvamo, Smurfit WestRock

RBC analysts flagged negative impact on companies such as Clearwater Paper, Rayonier, Sylvamo and Smurfit WestRock.

Survey: Containerboard Prices Fell in February

A recent survey showed a majority of U.S. buyers reported lower containerboard prices in February, while a surge of European imports boosted supply and intensified pricing pressure.

Stock Moves: Smurfit -7%, International Paper -6%

Smurfit and U.S.-based International Paper were down 7% and 6%, respectively, on Monday.

Automobiles

AUTOMOBILES

Legacy automakers like Ford Motor and General Motors have been caught in the tariff storm since the beginning of Trump's second term but the ruling is unlikely to bring relief, according to Barclays analysts.

Most Auto Tariffs Under Section 232 Unchanged

Most of the tariffs on the industry are under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and are unaffected by the removal of the IEEPA levels, they said.

Steel, Aluminum and Copper

STEEL, ALUMINUM AND COPPER

Producers Largely Unaffected: Steel Dynamics, Alcoa, Freeport-McMoran

Steel, aluminum and copper producers like Steel Dynamics, Alcoa and Freeport-McMoran are also unlikely to feel any impact as the tariffs will remain in place under Section 232, analysts at ING and UniCredit noted.

Emerging Markets

EMERGING MARKETS

China Seen as a Key Beneficiary

Most brokerages expect China to be among economies that will benefit the most from the rejig in U.S. tariffs.

Hong Kong Index Closed 2.5% Higher

Hong Kong's benchmark index closed 2.5% higher on Monday, with tech stocks including Alibaba and Tencent jumping.

Projected China Tariff Rates: 24%–27% vs. 32%

Analysts at Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan expect tariff rates on China to decline to 24% and 27%, respectively, from the 32% earlier.

Other Winners: India, Southeast Asia, Brazil

In other regions, India, most Southeast Asian economies and Brazil are expected to benefit overall.

Estimated Cuts: SE Asia 4–5%, India to 14%

BofA anticipates most of Southeast Asia facing tariff reductions of about 4-5%, while Morgan Stanley analysts expect levies on India to fall to 14%.

(Reporting by Johann M Cherian, Shashwat Chauhan and Rashika Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila)