Finance
Explainer-Where Does the EU Get Its Gas and How Is It Impacted by the Iran Conflict?
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 19, 2026
3 min readLast updated: March 19, 2026
Quick Summary
Iran’s attack on Qatar’s LNG facility has disrupted global gas flows, pushing Europe into a competitive LNG scramble and spiking benchmark Dutch TTF prices, with limited alternatives available in the short term.
Where does the EU get its gas and how is it impacted by the Iran conflict?
By Susanna Twidale
EU Gas Supply and the Impact of the Iran Conflict
LONDON, March 19 (Reuters) - Iran's attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex, the world's largest, has focused attention on the risks to gas supply, including buyers in Europe.
Qatar produces of 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG) and has said the attack will impact exports for up to five years.
What Has Happened to Gas Supply?
Qatar, which supplies the EU with some 9% of its LNG according to EU data, halted production after Iranian threats to shipping effectively halted tanker traffic leaving the Gulf.
QatarEnergy then reported extensive damage to several of its LNG facilities after a missile attack from Iran.
Asian buyers, including China, Japan, and India, are the main victims as they buy some 80% of QatarEnergy's LNG.
But Europe will experience a knock-on effect as Asian buyers increasingly compete for spot cargoes.
Can Europe Get More from Elsewhere?
Norway's Role in EU Gas Supply
Norway is Europe’s largest overall gas supplier, providing more than a third of the bloc’s gas versus some 4% from Qatar in 2025.
Its state-owned gas producer, Equinor, told Reuters earlier in March that the company does not have spare capacity to increase its output or exports.
The United States as a Gas Supplier
The United States became the EU’s main source of LNG in 2025, supplying 25% of its gas imports.
Yet while many gas producers have large output expansion plans, U.S. facilities are currently operating at close to full capacity and are unlikely to be able to ramp up supply significantly in the short term.
U.S. natural gas prices have also risen, drawing calls from some energy-intensive industries for a curb on U.S. gas exports to help alleviate price spikes.
Can Russian Supply Come Back?
Changes in Russian Gas Imports
Europe's gas imports have undergone significant transformation since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the European Union's subsequent drive to wean the bloc off Russian energy.
Russia had previously supplied more than 40% of the EU's gas. That fell to around 13% in 2025 and current plans call for a full ban on Russian gas imports by late 2027.
Political Debate on Russian Energy
Some countries, such as Hungary, have urged the EU to lift measures on Russian energy imports, but European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said returning to Russian energy would be "a strategic blunder" and make Europe more vulnerable.
What Is Happening to Gas Prices?
European wholesale gas prices have doubled since the war in Iran began on Feb 28.
The benchmark front-month Dutch contract hit an intra-day high of 74 euros/megawatt hour on March 19, its highest level since January 2023, yet well below highs seen during the 2022 energy crisis above 300 euros/MWh.
(Reporting by Susanna Twidale; editing by Nina Chestney and Jason Neely)
Key Takeaways
- •Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, producing about 20% of global LNG, was attacked by Iran, halting exports and triggering supply disruption worries, particularly along the Strait of Hormuz (lemonde.fr).
- •Asia, the primary consumer of Qatari LNG, now competes more intensely for remaining spot cargoes, pressuring EU import prices despite Europe receiving around 9–10% of its LNG from Qatar (energy.ec.europa.eu).
- •In 2025, Norway led EU gas imports (~31%), followed by the U.S. (~26%), Algeria, and a diminishing share from Russia (~12%)—the EU is phasing out Russian gas by 2027 (consilium.europa.eu).
- •European Dutch TTF gas prices have surged: up 50% to €47.70/MWh on March 2, spiked further to around €70/MWh on March 19, and Goldman Sachs now forecasts ~€55/MWh for April amid ongoing volatility (lemonde.fr).
References
Frequently Asked Questions about Explainer-Where does the EU get its gas and how is it impacted by the Iran conflict?
1How does the Iran conflict affect EU gas supply?
The Iran conflict and the attack on Qatar's LNG facilities have disrupted tanker traffic and halted Qatari gas production, reducing supply to the EU.
2What percentage of LNG does Qatar supply to the EU?
Qatar supplies about 9% of the EU's LNG, according to EU data.
3Can Europe increase its gas imports from other countries?
Norway and the US are the main alternatives, but both are operating near full capacity, limiting any near-term increase.
4Will Russian gas imports return to the EU?
Russian gas imports have dropped from over 40% to 13%, with plans for a full ban by late 2027. EU leaders oppose returning to Russian energy.
5How have European gas prices changed due to the conflict?
European wholesale gas prices have doubled since the conflict began, reaching levels last seen in January 2023.
