Exit Polls Suggest Italy's Meloni Has Narrowly Lost Justice Referendum Vote

Italy's Meloni loses justice referendum, early count suggests

Referendum Results and Political Implications

By Crispian Balmer and Angelo Amante

ROME, March 23 (Reuters) - Italian voters have rejected a flagship judicial reform championed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, initial vote counting suggested on Monday, dealing a blow to her right-wing coalition ahead of next year's general elections.

Early Vote Count and Projections

The opposition-backed "No" bloc will secure around 54% of the vote against 46% for the government's "Yes" camp, state broadcaster RAI said, based on an analysis of early counting patterns.

The Mediaset TV group, generally pro-government, projected the same outcome.

Voter Turnout and Campaign Atmosphere

Turnout was close to 60% -- much higher than expected following an ill-tempered campaign that revealed a deep, mutual animosity between the right-wing coalition and Italy's judiciary, that will leave lasting scars.

Impact on Meloni and the Opposition

If the initial vote projections are right, defeat might mark a turning point for Meloni, stripping her of the aura of being a winner in the eyes of the Italian electorate after four years of victories in local and national polls.

Potential Shift in Political Alliances

By contrast, the result may re-energize the fragmented centre-left, giving the two largest opposition parties, the Democratic Party and 5-Star Movement, the impetus to forge a broad alliance to take on Meloni and her allies.

Meloni's Response and Political Future

Meloni Plans to Stay in Office

MELONI PLANS TO STAY IN OFFICE REGARDLESS OF REFERENDUM

While Meloni has firmly ruled out resigning over the result, avoiding the fate of former premier Matteo Renzi, whose tenure ended abruptly after a failed 2016 constitutional referendum, a loss will nonetheless leave her vulnerable, analysts said.

Challenges Facing Meloni

The timing of the contest proved challenging for Meloni, with Italians harbouring a clear dislike of her ally, U.S. President Donald Trump, and fearful that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran will drive up already high domestic power prices.

Pollsters said in the run-up to the ballot that many who voted "No" would likely do so to register dissatisfaction with Meloni's administration rather than engaging with the substance of the highly technical reform.

Details of the Judicial Reform

The referendum proposed separating the careers of judges and public prosecutors, and splitting magistrates' self-governing body, the High Council of the Judiciary (CSM), into two sections, with members chosen by lot rather than elected.

The government argued the changes were needed to make the judiciary more accountable for its mistakes, remove potential bias in the system against defendants and prevent politically motivated factions from doling out top jobs to supporters.

By the government's own admission, the changes would not have addressed one of the main problems afflicting Italy -- a notoriously slow legal system that weighs on the economy.

The magistrates' union and opposition parties said the reform would have eroded judicial autonomy, giving Meloni de facto control over the magistrature -- something she denied.

Broader Consequences for Meloni and Italy

Victory in the referendum would have likely emboldened the prime minister to press ahead with other significant constitutional changes, such as making the post of prime minister directly elected.

The likely rejection by voters leaves her weakened domestically as she grapples with a stagnant economy and complex international headwinds. It could also weaken her standing in Europe, where previously she was seen as unexpectedly resilient and enduring.

(Reporting by Crispian Balmer and Angelo Amante; Editing by Gavin Jones)