Exclusive-With iran war exit elusive, trump aides vie to affect outcome

Trump's Iran War Strategy Intensifies Finance and Oil Market Uncertainty

White House Decision-Making Fuels Economic and Political Volatility

WASHINGTON, March 13 (Reuters) - A complex tug-of-war inside the White House is driving U.S. President Donald Trump's shifting public statements on the course of the Iran war, as aides debate when and how to declare victory even as the conflict spreads across the Middle East.

Conflicting Internal Pressures on Trump

Some officials and advisers are warning Trump that surging gasoline prices could exact a political cost from the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, while some hawks are pressing the president to maintain the offensive against the Islamic Republic, according to interviews with a Trump adviser and others close to the deliberations.

Their observations to Reuters offer a previously unreported glimpse inside White House decision-making as it adjusts its approach to the biggest U.S. military operation since the 2003 Iraq war.

Shifting Messages and Internal Viewpoints

SHIFTING MESSAGES, VARIOUS INTERNAL VIEWPOINTS

The behind-the-scenes maneuvering underscores the high stakes Trump, who returned to office last year promising to avoid “stupid” military interventions, faces nearly two weeks after plunging the nation into a war that has rattled global financial markets and disrupted the international oil trade.

The jockeying for Trump's ear is a feature of his presidency, but this time the consequences are a matter of war and peace in one of the world's most volatile and economically critical regions.

Shifting from the sweeping goals he framed in launching the war on February 28, Trump in recent days has emphasized that he views the conflict as a limited campaign whose objectives have mostly been met.

But the message remains unclear to many, including the energy markets, which have lurched in both directions in response to Trump's statements.

He told a campaign-style rally in Kentucky on Wednesday that “we won" the war, then abruptly pivoted: "We don't want to leave early, do we? We've got to finish the job.”

Economic and Political Concerns

Economic advisers and officials, including from the Treasury Department and the National Economic Council, have warned Trump that an oil shock and rising gasoline prices could quickly erode domestic support for the war, said the adviser and two others close to the deliberations, speaking on the condition of anonymity to disclose internal discussions.

Political advisers, including Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and deputy chief James Blair, are making similar arguments, focusing on the political fallout from higher gas prices and urging Trump to define victory narrowly and signal the operation is limited and nearly finished, the sources said.

Hawkish and Populist Influences

Pushing in the other direction are hawkish voices urging Trump to sustain military pressure on Iran, including Republican lawmakers such as U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton, and media commentators such as Mark Levin, according to people familiar with the matter.

They argue the U.S. must prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and respond forcefully to attacks on American troops and shipping.

A third force comes from Trump’s populist base and figures such as strategist Steve Bannon and right-wing television personality Tucker Carlson, who have been pressing him and his top aides to avoid getting dragged into another prolonged Middle East conflict.

“He is allowing the hawks to believe the campaign continues, wants markets to believe the war might end soon and his base to believe escalation will be limited,” the Trump adviser said.

White House Response to Speculation

Asked for comment, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement: "This story is based on gossip and speculation from anonymous sources who aren’t even in the room for any discussions with President Trump.

"The President is known for being a good listener and seeking the opinions of many people, but ultimately everyone knows he’s the final decision maker and his own best messenger," she said. "The President’s entire team is focused on ensuring the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are fully achieved."

Other people named for their roles in the deliberations did not immediately respond to Reuters' questions.

Seeking an Exit Amid Market Turmoil

LOOKING FOR AN EXIT

In taking America to war, Trump offered little explanation, and the administration's stated war aims have ranged from thwarting an imminent attack by Iran to crippling its nuclear program to replacing its government.

As he seeks an exit from an unpopular conflict, Trump is trying to juggle competing narratives that some critics say have complicated an already difficult situation, with Iran defiant despite the devastating U.S.-Israeli air assault.

Managing Economic Fallout

Top political aides and economic advisers, whose warnings before the war of the potential economic shock were largely ignored, appear to have played a major role in pushing Trump’s efforts this week to reassure skittish markets and contain rising oil and gas prices.

His public shift to downplaying the war's impact, describing it as a "short-term excursion," and his insistence that gas price hikes would be short-lived appeared aimed at calming fears of an open-ended conflict.

Defining Victory and Military Outcomes

Some top aides have advised him to work toward a conclusion to the conflict that he can call a triumph, at least militarily, the sources said, even if much of the Iranian leadership survives, along with remnants of a nuclear program that the campaign was meant to target.

Wave after wave of U.S. and Israeli air strikes have killed a number of top Iranian leaders among some 2,000 people overall - some as far away as Lebanon - devastated its ballistic missile arsenal, sunk much of its navy and degraded its ability to support armed proxies around the Middle East.

Ongoing Risks to Oil Markets

But the military achievements have been seriously undercut by Iran’s stepped-up attacks on oil tankers and transport facilities in the Gulf, driving up oil prices.

Trump has said he will decide when to end the campaign. He and his aides say they are far ahead