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    1. Home
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    3. >Economics of New Zealand's LNG terminal plan must stack up to get go-ahead, prime minister says
    Finance

    Economics of New Zealand's Lng Terminal Plan Must Stack up to Get Go-Ahead, Prime Minister Says

    Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®

    Posted on March 30, 2026

    2 min read

    Last updated: March 30, 2026

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    Quick Summary

    New Zealand’s LNG import terminal plan—which would bolster energy security amid falling domestic gas and hydro volatility—will only proceed if the economics prove solid, says PM Luxon. Rising global prices and shifting forecasts, however, cast doubt on its commercial viability.

    New Zealand's LNG Terminal Plan Hinges on Strong Economic Case: PM Luxon

    Government Weighs Economic Viability of LNG Import Terminal

    Project Background and Timeline

    WELLINGTON, March 30 (Reuters) - New Zealand's plan to build a liquefied natural gas import terminal faces uncertainty, with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon saying on Monday the government would approve the project only if the business case stacked up.

    In February the government shortlisted contractors to build the facility in Taranaki, on the country's North Island. The plan was that the terminal would be ready to receive LNG in 2027 or early 2028. The government had announced the project in 2025 to boost the country’s energy security and bring down costs.

    Government's Procurement Process

    Luxon told Radio New Zealand on Monday that the government was still in the procurement stage and while there had been a number of bidders, if the business case didn’t make sense, they would not sign off on the project.

    "It's purely going to come down to the economic return and the cost-benefit and in the commercial case - if it's not an attractive commercial case, we won't be doing it," Luxon said.

    Economic and Market Challenges

    Impact of Global Events on Project Viability

    Earlier Monday, the New Zealand Herald, citing sources, reported that government ministers were planning on delaying or axing the plan to build the facility as rising prices, driven by the war in the Middle East, had changed the economics of the plan.

    Energy Security and Supply Considerations

    Reducing Reliance on Fossil Fuels

    New Zealand has been exploring developing the facility to shore up electricity supplies as declining domestic gas production leaves the power system more exposed in dry years, when low lake and dam levels curb hydro generation. The proposed model would allow the country to import LNG in large cargoes only when needed, aiming to reduce reliance on coal and diesel during supply shortfalls while limiting prolonged exposure to volatile global gas prices. Energy Minister Simon Watts has put the indicative cost at about NZ$1 billion ($600 million), with import capacity of 12 petajoules a year.

    (Reporting by Lucy Craymer; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

    Table of Contents

    • Government Weighs Economic Viability of LNG Import Terminal
    • Project Background and Timeline
    • Government's Procurement Process

    Key Takeaways

    • •Prime Minister Christopher Luxon affirms the LNG terminal will only be approved if the business case is compelling, with economic return and cost-benefit analysis driving the decision. Reuters report highlights procurement stage and targeted operational date of 2027–2028.
    • •New Zealand faces a steep decline in domestic gas production—down nearly half from seven years ago—exposing its electricity system to dry‑year shortages and price spikes due to reduced hydro generation.
    • •Government modeling projects annual economic benefits up to NZ$1.2 billion by 2035 from LNG import capacity, though rising global LNG prices and critical industry views cast uncertainty over the project’s commercial attractiveness.

    Frequently Asked Questions about Economics of New Zealand's LNG terminal plan must stack up to get go-ahead, prime minister says

    1What is New Zealand's plan for an LNG import terminal?

    New Zealand plans to build a liquefied natural gas import terminal in Taranaki to improve energy security and reduce costs, pending a strong business case.

    2When is the LNG terminal in New Zealand expected to be operational?

    The LNG terminal is planned to be ready to receive LNG in 2027 or early 2028.

  • Economic and Market Challenges
  • Impact of Global Events on Project Viability
  • Energy Security and Supply Considerations
  • Reducing Reliance on Fossil Fuels
  • 3What factors could delay or cancel the LNG terminal project?

    The project could be delayed or cancelled if the business case does not justify the investment or if economic conditions, such as rising global LNG prices, worsen.

    4How much will the LNG terminal cost?

    The indicative cost for the LNG terminal is about NZ$1 billion (US$600 million), with an import capacity of 12 petajoules a year.

    5Why is New Zealand considering an LNG import terminal?

    New Zealand is considering an LNG terminal to address declining domestic gas production and reduce reliance on coal and diesel during energy shortfalls.

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