Dollar gains after Fed keeps rates unchanged and yen weakens past 160
Dollar Strengthens Amid Fed Decision and Global Economic Tensions
By Chibuike Oguh
NEW YORK, April 29 (Reuters) - The dollar strengthened against major currencies on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, with investors also on edge as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran shows little sign of easing.
Federal Reserve's Divided Vote and Leadership Transition
The Fed’s 8–4 vote marked its most divided decision since 1992, underscoring the challenge incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will face in pushing for rate cuts. Current Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15.
Powell's Press Conference and Interest Rate Outlook
Speaking at a press conference, Powell said that despite dissent from four officials who opposed maintaining an easing bias, he does not see the Fed tilting toward raising interest rates.
Market Reaction to Fed Decision
The euro slipped 0.35% to $1.167150, while sterling fell 0.36% to $1.34705.
Analyst Commentary on Fed Policy and Dollar Strength
"The main thing is that announcement revealed that there are three people thinking that we should be hiking interest rates or should not have an easing bias and that we should be worried about inflation," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.
"Kevin Warsh seems a lot like Powell and is likely not going to be a dove. He's also not entering a Fed that is thinking of stimulus; they're actually thinking hawkishly. And then more importantly, in the global perspective, central banking has a lack of consensus, which is actually helping the U.S. dollar," Perez said.
The dollar rose 0.23% to 0.7911 Swiss francs, while the dollar index gained 0.35% to 98.938.
Global Central Bank Decisions and Geopolitical Factors
Markets are also eyeing decisions from major central banks including the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Bank of Canada had on Wednesday kept its key interest rate unchanged.
U.S. President Donald Trump discussed how to mitigate the impact of a possible months-long U.S. blockade of Iran's ports with U.S. oil companies, a White House official said on Wednesday.
Oil Prices and Inflation Expectations
Oil prices climbed for an eighth straight session — the longest run since May 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — with the front-month June contract, which expires on Wednesday, rising 6% to settle at $118.03 a barrel.
"Oil prices moved higher based on latest developments; and when oil prices move, yields tend to move higher and at the same time long-term inflation expectations haven't moved," said Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments in Palo Alto, California.
"Taking it together, this is a tightening of financial conditions and a raising of real interest rates, which is supportive for the dollar - meaning all else being equal that weakens other currencies," he said.
Yen Intervention Watch
Yen Weakness and Bank of Japan Policy
The yen weakened above 160 per dollar, edging closer to levels that have previously triggered intervention, despite the Bank of Japan signaling after its policy meeting on Tuesday that it could raise rates in coming months.
The Japanese currency has fallen about 0.6% against the dollar and more than 2% since the war began, partly reflecting Japan’s vulnerability to higher imported energy costs.
Analyst Insights on Yen and Intervention Risks
"The trade-weighted yen has reached its lowest level since the early 1990s, and the MoF (Ministry of Finance) has become increasingly vocal about yen weakness, emphasizing the administration’s readiness to respond and “close coordination with the US” on the currency. Naturally, these developments have prompted renewed concerns of imminent intervention," Goldman Sachs analyst Karen Fishman said in an investor note.
The yen was last down 0.49% at 160.40 per dollar and down 0.12% at 187.22 per euro.
(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York; Editing by Alison Williams, Lisa Shumaker and Nick Zieminski)