Dollar Jumps as Failed US-Iran Peace Talks Spark Safe-Haven Push

Dollar and oil rise, stocks slide as US-Iran peace talks collapse

Market Reactions to Failed US-Iran Peace Talks

By Amanda Cooper

Oil and Dollar Surge Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

LONDON/SINGAPORE, April 13 (Reuters) - Oil and the dollar jumped on Monday as the failure of U.S.-Iran talks to yield an agreement left a fragile ceasefire hanging in the balance and no end to a choke on Mideast energy exports.

Impact on Global Stock Markets

Stocks were set to fall in Asia and S&P 500 futures dropped around 1.1% in early trade. Benchmark Brent crude futures opened about 7.5% higher at $102.37 a barrel.

The euro fell about 0.5% to $1.1672.

Ceasefire Stalemate and Strait of Hormuz Blockade

Marathon talks in Islamabad ended in stalemate and U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday said the U.S. Navy would itself start blockading the Strait of Hormuz nL1N40U07M.

Iran has effectively closed the choke point for 20% of the world's daily energy supplies since the war started in late February, driving up oil prices by more than 30% and fuelling fears of a surge in inflation that has whacked bond markets.

Effects on Bonds and Commodities

U.S. Treasury futures sank in early trade and gold, which has been a loser as investors have cashed out profits from its long pre-war rally, fell almost 2%.

Analyst Perspectives and Market Sentiment

"This is an absolute unwinding of any optimism heading into the peace talks into that play of dollar: safe-haven; oil jumping and selling out of everything else," City Index senior market analyst Fiona Cincotta said.

"On the other hand, we have seen the markets over-exaggerate sometimes. And I think especially around this scenario, the market is struggling to really price it correctly, because there is so much uncertainty, so many unknowns." 

Asset Price Movements and Ceasefire Context

Moves early on Monday dragged many asset prices back near where they had traded in the middle of last week, before the U.S. and Iran had struck a two-week ceasefire deal.

"The market is now largely back to conditions before the ceasefire, except now the U.S. will block the remaining up to (2 million barrels) Iranian-linked flows through the Strait of Hormuz as well," said Saul Kavonic, MST Marquee analyst in Sydney.

"The key remaining question is if the U.S. renews strikes on Iran, raising the risk of strikes on energy infrastructure across the region which could have a further lasting impact beyond the duration of the war."

Potential for Renewed Military Action

The Wall Street Journal reported Trump and his advisers were now weighing limited strikes on Iran.

Currency and Central Bank Responses

Currency Market Movements

Risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar and sterling came under pressure, falling 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. The dollar rose 0.3% to 159.78 yen.

Central Bank Policy Expectations

With expectations building for a resurgence in inflation, investors have priced in the possibility of several central banks, such as the European Central Bank and Bank of England, leaning towards raising interest rates this year, in stark contrast with pre-war expectations for cuts or steady rates.

Broader Economic and Political Implications

Global Equities and Political Fallout

Global equities, which ended last week around their highest since early March, buoyed by optimism that the United States and Iran were heading towards some kind of resolution, are still 2% below where they were prior to the war breaking out. 

Trump said on Sunday that the price of oil and gasoline ​may remain high through November's midterm elections, a rare acknowledgement of the potential political fallout from the war.

(Additional reporting by Scott Murdoch in SydneyEditing by Vidya Ranganathan, Aurora Ellis and Deepa Babington)