Finance
Dollar Advances on Safe-Haven Flows, Strong US Data
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 1, 2026
4 min readLast updated: February 2, 2026
Quick Summary
The dollar strengthens as investors consider Kevin Warsh's potential leadership of the Fed, while the yen weakens amid Japanese political developments.
Dollar Strengthens Amid Safe-Haven Demand and Positive US Data
Dollar Performance and Economic Indicators
By Laura Matthews
Impact of US Manufacturing Data
NEW YORK, Feb 2 (Reuters) - The dollar advanced broadly against major pairs on Monday as a selloff in precious metals triggered a flight to safety and investors continue to weigh what a Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh might look like.
Market Reactions to Federal Reserve News
The greenback extended its gains after U.S. manufacturing data showed a return to growth in January, although tariffs raised raw material prices and strained supply chains.
Commodity-Linked Currencies Under Pressure
The dollar appeared unfazed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' statement on Monday that a partial government shutdown would delay the release of the closely watched employment report for January, which had been due for release this Friday.
Japanese Yen and Upcoming Elections
"Markets are back to navigating without a clear view of underlying conditions in U.S. labor markets," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.
"This shutdown should be mercifully brief, limiting the impact on monetary policy expectations and overall trading activity. As investors become acclimated to U.S. government dysfunction, the dollar's safe-haven credentials are eroding."
Commodity-linked currencies were bearing the brunt of selling pressure in what appeared to be a nervous start to a week filled with central bank meetings and top-tier economic data, as well as an election in Japan.
The yen was back on traders' radar after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi talked up the benefits of a weaker yen in a weekend campaign speech, in a tone at odds with her finance ministry which has worked to stem the yen's declines.
FED PICK SPARKED DOLLAR RALLY ON FRIDAY
The dollar rallied on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Warsh as the next Fed chair. Analysts assume Warsh will be less likely to press for all-out rapid rate cuts than some other candidates who had been in the running, though he has sounded more dovish than current chair Jerome Powell.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.44% to 97.64.
Market pricing continues to indicate two Fed rate cuts this year with a move seen as unlikely until June, when Warsh would be chair if confirmed by the Senate.
"USD is finishing strongly and the momentum indicators give plenty of room for additional dollar gains," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.
The euro retreated further from the $1.20 level, falling 0.53% to $1.1788, while sterling dropped 0.19% to $1.3661. Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to keep policy rates on hold when they announce their latest decisions on Thursday.
COMMODITY CURRENCIES SOFT
Currencies from economies with greater exposure to commodity prices and risk sentiment remained soft on Monday.
The Australian dollar fell 0.22% to $0.6944, ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision on Tuesday, even with expectations it will deliver a hike.
The kiwi dollar fell 0.35% to $0.5997, while the Canadian dollar weakened 0.5% to C$1.369.
YEN WEAKENS
Against the Japanese yen the dollar rose 0.57% to 155.64 on Monday, with expectations that Takaichi's party would score a landslide victory in the upcoming lower house election.
A survey by the Asahi newspaper indicated that the Liberal Democratic Party is likely to well exceed a majority of 233 seats out of 465 in the lower house.
Investors have sold the yen and Japanese government bonds in the run-up to the election on expectations of more expansionary fiscal policy should Takaichi win a strong mandate, and that the tax cuts her party has touted would further strain already stretched government finances.
Still, the ailing yen has found a floor recently as traders remain on alert to the prospect of coordinated currency intervention by the U.S. and Japan, after talk of rate checks from both sides late last month sent the currency surging.
(Reporting by Laura Matthews in New York; additional reporting by Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee; Editing by Sonali Paul, Lincoln Feast, Alex Richardson and Mark Heinrich)
Key Takeaways
- •Dollar strengthens with potential Fed leadership change.
- •Kevin Warsh's policies could impact the Fed's balance sheet.
- •Yen weakens amid Japanese political developments.
- •Potential rate cuts under Warsh could affect global markets.
- •Upcoming Japanese elections may influence yen's trajectory.
Frequently Asked Questions about Dollar advances on safe-haven flows, strong US data
1What is monetary policy?
Monetary policy refers to the actions taken by a central bank to manage the money supply and interest rates to achieve macroeconomic objectives such as controlling inflation and stabilizing the currency.
2What is foreign exchange?
Foreign exchange, or forex, is the market where currencies are traded. It determines the value of one currency in relation to another and is essential for international trade.
3What is currency intervention?
Currency intervention is when a country's central bank buys or sells its own currency in the foreign exchange market to influence its value and stabilize the economy.
4What are financial markets?
Financial markets are platforms where buyers and sellers engage in trading financial assets such as stocks, bonds, currencies, and derivatives, facilitating the exchange of capital.
5What is a central bank?
A central bank is a national institution that manages a country's currency, money supply, and interest rates, overseeing the banking system and implementing monetary policy.
