Finance
Central Banks' Concern Over Rising Geopolitical Tensions Surges, Survey Shows
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on April 7, 2026
3 min readLast updated: April 7, 2026
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A survey of nearly 100 central banks holding over $9.5 trillion in reserves shows that geopolitical tensions have surged to become the top global risk for reserve managers, with nearly 70 % citing it as their primary concern—double that of 2024.
Central Banks Highlight Geopolitical Tensions as Top Risk in 2024 Survey
By Marc Jones
Key Findings from the Central Bank Survey
Geopolitical Tensions Overtake Other Risks
LONDON, April 8 (Reuters) - Concerns among central banks about geopolitical tensions have surged dramatically this year and are now viewed as the top global risk, according to a new survey of central banks managing more than $9.5 trillion in reserves.
The survey of almost 100 institutions by Central Banking Publications was conducted between January and March. All but a few responses came in before the February 28 strikes on Iran, but tensions had already been mounting and were preceded by January's row between the U.S. and Denmark over Greenland.
Shift in Risk Perception
As a result, almost 70% of banks ranked geopolitics as their top risk. That replaced last year's top worry of U.S. trade protection and marked a sharp jump from 35% that cited geopolitics as the leading worry in 2024, when the war in Gaza last threatened to destabilise the Middle East.
Long-Term Reserve Management Concerns
Taking a 5-year perspective, inflation and interest rates remained the most important factors expected to affect reserve management, the survey showed, with just over half of central banks ranking them as their top issue.
Decline in Inflation and Interest Rate Concerns
However, that is well down from the 76% that cited inflation and interest rates last year, and geopolitics was again heavily cited by almost 30% - double the share of last year.
Currency and Asset Preferences
Trust in the U.S. Dollar
The survey also showed trust in the dollar being tested. The U.S. currency lost over 12% versus a basket of other top currencies between January last year and this year, although it has reclaimed around a third of the ground since.
Some 80% of reserve managers said they either agree or strongly agree the greenback remains the world's primary safe-haven currency, though many added its dominance is increasingly being questioned.
Central Bankers' Views on Dollar Dominance
All responses in the survey were anonymous, but one Asia-Pacific central banker was quoted as saying: "Over the next five years, global FX reserves managers will rigorously assess whether the U.S. dollar’s role as the dominant global reserve currency continues, amid rising global fragmentation."
The survey also showed 16% of central banks see the dollar's role impacting their reserve management decisions over the 5-year timeframe, up from just over 3% last year.
Confidence in U.S. Bonds and Gold
Confidence in U.S. bonds deteriorated markedly too. Only a third of respondents expect U.S. bonds to outperform those of other Group of Seven economies and China, down from more than half last year and over 70% in 2024.
Gold as a Safe Haven
Gold, meanwhile, remains a beneficiary of geopolitical uncertainty. Nearly three‑quarters of central banks reported holding gold in their reserves, up slightly from last year, while almost 40% said they were considering adding exposure.
(Reporting by Marc Jones; Editing by Chris Reese)
Key Takeaways
- •Geopolitics now rank as the foremost risk in central bank reserve management, up from U.S. trade concerns in 2024.
- •Central banks are increasingly diversifying away from the dollar: confidence in U.S. bonds is fading, while gold continues to benefit from uncertainty.
- •Gold demand remains strong—with central banks buying hundreds of tonnes annually—as they hedge against fragmentation and inflation risks.
Frequently Asked Questions about Central banks' concern over rising geopolitical tensions surges, survey shows
1What is the top global risk cited by central banks in 2024?
Geopolitical tensions are now considered the top global risk by nearly 70% of surveyed central banks, surpassing last year's worries about U.S. trade protection.
2How has concern over inflation and interest rates changed among central banks?
Over half still see inflation and interest rates as key reserve management factors, but this is down from 76% last year as attention shifts to geopolitics.
3Is trust in the U.S. dollar changing among global reserve managers?
While 80% of reserve managers still view the dollar as the primary safe-haven, its dominance is increasingly questioned, and more banks now consider its role when managing reserves.
4What did the survey reveal about confidence in U.S. bonds?
Confidence in U.S. bonds has declined, with only a third of central bankers expecting them to outperform those of other major economies, down sharply from last year.
