Finance
Britain Medicine Supply at Risk if Middle East Conflict Persists, Trade Group Warns
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 20, 2026
2 min readLast updated: March 20, 2026
Quick Summary
Britain currently avoids medicine shortages, but soaring freight costs and Middle East supply disruptions threaten margins of generic and biosimilar drugmakers, risking price hikes or supply failures.
UK Medicine Supply Faces Risks from Middle East Conflict and Rising Costs
Impact of Middle East Conflict and Rising Costs on UK Medicine Supply
By Maggie Fick and Bhanvi Satija
Current Situation and Warnings from Medicines UK
LONDON, March 20 (Reuters) - Britain has so far avoided medicine shortages linked to the war in the Middle East, but soaring freight costs are squeezing generic drugmakers' margins and could soon trigger price rises, supply shortages or both, trade group Medicines UK warned.
Chief Executive Mark Samuels said Britain was "one step away" from medicine shortages if instability persisted, with stockpiles providing only a temporary buffer.
Pressure on Generic Drugmakers
While supplies are still flowing, he said makers of cheap generics, which account for most NHS medicines by volume, were already under pressure from higher transport costs and shipping disruption. If freight costs persist, manufacturers may no longer be able to absorb them.
"If the conflict continues for the longer term, then I think manufacturers will cease being able to absorb the costs, and then we'll either have some price rises for the NHS or we'll have a failure to supply. Probably a mixture of both," Samuels told Reuters in an interview late on Thursday.
Vulnerability of Off-Patent Medicines
He said off-patent medicines were especially exposed because, unlike patented drugs, their margins leave little scope to absorb higher freight costs. With about 55% of generic medicines in Britain priced at less than 1 British pound ($1.34) for a month's supply, transport makes up a significant part of the cost, increasing the risk that some products could become loss-making and threaten supply.
Disruption of Supply Routes
Reuters reported on Monday that the conflict was already disrupting flows of critical medicines into the Gulf, imperilling supply routes for cancer drugs and other temperature-sensitive treatments as companies rerouted flights and sought overland alternatives.
Biosimilar Medicines at Higher Risk
Biosimilar medicines were more exposed than standard oral drugs, he said, because they require longer lead times and more complex manufacturing, Samuels said.
Role of Medicines UK and Market Overview
Medicines UK represents generic and biosimilar medicines manufacturers and suppliers whose products account for 85% of NHS prescriptions.
($1 = 0.7449 pounds)
(Reporting by Maggie Fick; Editing by Sharon Singleton)
Key Takeaways
- •Middle East conflict has sharply raised freight rates and disrupted trade routes, increasing cost and delays for importing generic drugs to the UK, notably from India and beyond (apnews.com).
- •Generic and biosimilar manufacturers—covering about 85% of NHS prescriptions—are operating on razor‑thin margins; sustained higher transport costs may force price increases or lead to shortages (politico.eu).
- •Broader structural vulnerabilities, like reduced imports post‑Brexit and reliance on offshore API and generics manufacturing, amplify risks to UK medicine supply resilience (theguardian.com)
References
Frequently Asked Questions about Britain medicine supply at risk if Middle East conflict persists, trade group warns
1Why is Britain at risk of medicine supply shortages?
Britain faces potential medicine shortages due to soaring freight costs and shipping disruption caused by ongoing Middle East conflict, impacting generic drugmakers.
2How are rising freight costs affecting NHS medicines?
Higher freight costs squeeze margins for generic drugmakers, which supply most NHS medicines, making some products potentially loss-making and threatening supply.
3Which types of medicines are most exposed to supply risks?
Off-patent generic medicines and biosimilars are especially exposed to disruptions, as they have low margins and require complex manufacturing and logistics.
4What might happen if the Middle East conflict continues?
If conflict persists, manufacturers may stop absorbing extra costs, leading to NHS price rises, supply shortages, or a mix of both in the UK.
5How dependent is the NHS on generics and biosimilars?
About 85% of NHS prescriptions are supplied by generics and biosimilars, making the system highly dependent on these affordable medicines.