Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on October 14, 2025
3 min readLast updated: January 21, 2026
Add as preferred source on GoogleUK grocery inflation rose to 5.2%, pressuring consumer budgets. Tesco leads market share growth. Food inflation may hit 6% by year-end.
By James Davey
LONDON (Reuters) -British grocery inflation rose to 5.2% in the four weeks to October 5, industry data showed on Tuesday, adding to pressure on consumers already facing higher energy bills.
The figure from Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly Kantar), which provides an early indication of pricing pressures ahead of official UK inflation data on October 22, compared with 4.9% in last month's report.
Worldpanel said prices were rising fastest in markets such as chocolate, meat and coffee and falling the fastest in household paper, sugar confectionery and sparkling wine.
"Spending on offers has hit its highest level since April at 29.4%, as consumers hunt for deals to ease the burden on their wallets," said Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel.
FOOD INFLATION FORECAST TO GO HIGHER
Britain's food retailers have said that higher employer taxes and regulatory costs as well as increased staff wages are adding to inflationary pressure from higher prices for commodities.
The British Retail Consortium, which represents the UK's biggest retailers, predicts that food inflation will be up to 6% by the end of the year, putting more pressure on household budgets in the run up to Christmas.
The Bank of England has forecast it will hit 5.5% before Christmas and then fall back as global wholesale factors fade.
Overall UK inflation held at 3.8% in August, according to official data published last month, the highest among major advanced economies.
Worldpanel said grocery sales rose 4.1% over the four week period year-on-year.
TESCO REMAINS INDUSTRY LEADER, GAINS MARKET SHARE
Separate industry data published on Tuesday showed British consumer spending grew by the least in four months in September as uncertainty ahead of finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget next month and rising energy bills deterred shoppers.
Worldpanel said industry leader Tesco again made the biggest market share gain over the 12 weeks to October 5 - sales increased 6.9% year-on-year and its market share rose 0.7 percentage point to 28.3%. Shares in Tesco rose 1%.
Sales at No.2 player Sainsbury's rose 5.2% and it gained 0.1 percentage point of market share on the year.
Asda remained the industry laggard - sales fell 3.2% and the No.3 grocer lost 0.9 percentage point of market share.
Online supermarket Ocado and discounter Lidl GB remained Britain's fastest growing grocers, with sales increases of 13.6% and 10.8%, respectively.
UK supermarkets' market share and sales growth (%)
Market share Market % change in
12 weeks to share 12 sales
October 5 weeks to (year-on-ye
2025 October ar)
6 2024
Tesco 28.3 27.6 6.9
Sainsbury's 15.3 15.2 5.2
Asda 11.8 12.7 -3.2
Aldi 10.6 10.6 4.3
Morrisons 8.3 8.5 1.7
Lidl 8.2 7.7 10.8
Co-operative 5.4 5.8 -2.3
Waitrose 4.4 4.4 3.7
Iceland 2.3 2.3 4.5
Ocado 2.0 1.8 13.6
Source: Worldpanel by Numerator
(Reporting by James Davey, Editing by Paul Sandle, Sarah Young and Bernadette Baum)
Grocery inflation refers to the increase in prices of food and household items over time, impacting consumer purchasing power and overall spending.
Key drivers of inflation include rising costs of raw materials, increased labor costs, and changes in consumer demand, which can lead to higher prices.
Market share is the percentage of an industry's sales that a particular company controls, indicating its competitiveness and presence in the market.
Consumer spending trends reflect changes in how consumers allocate their budgets across various goods and services, often influenced by economic conditions.
Inflation affects consumers by reducing their purchasing power, leading to higher costs for goods and services, which can strain household budgets.
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