Finance
Barclays slashes sales forecasts for Novo's CagriSema by more than 80%
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 24, 2026
2 min readLast updated: February 24, 2026
Tags:Biotech
Quick Summary
Barclays slashed CagriSema’s peak sales outlook to $2B after the drug trailed Lilly’s Zepbound in late-stage data. Novo shares slid as analysts questioned the therapy’s market potential and timeline.
Barclays cuts Novo's CagriSema peak sales outlook to $2B after data
By Maggie Fick
Analyst Forecast and Market Impact
LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Barclays analysts on Tuesday slashed their peak sales forecasts for Novo Nordisk's next-generation obesity drug CagriSema to just $2 billion from $12 billion following disappointing trial results for the drug a day earlier.
Why the Forecast Was Slashed
The cut in the bank's forecast was a clear sign of the extent of the blow that the new data dealt to the Danish drugmaker's efforts to regain its market leadership against U.S. rival Eli Lilly in a rapidly evolving obesity market.
Comparison with Lilly's Zepbound
Novo unveiled late-stage trial data for CagriSema on Monday that not only showed it underperforming Lilly's rival Zepbound, which launched in late 2023, but appeared to show weight loss with Zepbound was better than even some of Lilly's own data had shown.
Stock Market Reaction
Novo's shares tanked 16% on the news, wiping away the remaining gains brought by its blockbuster weight-loss drug Wegovy, while Lilly jumped 5%.
Jefferies and others weigh in
Analyst Sentiment and Risks
Regulatory Timeline and Outlook
Novo plans to launch next year after expected approval by the U.S. FDA by the end of this year, but Barclays, Jefferies and analysts at several other banks said the data led them to doubt the drug's commercial potential.
(Reporting by Maggie FickEditing by Peter Graff)
Key Takeaways
- •Barclays cut peak CagriSema sales forecasts to $2B from $12B, an 80%+ reduction.
- •CagriSema underperformed Lilly’s Zepbound in a late-stage study and failed non-inferiority.
- •Novo Nordisk shares fell roughly 16% on the news, while Eli Lilly gained about 5%.
- •Multiple banks, including Barclays and Jefferies, questioned CagriSema’s commercial potential.
- •Novo targets FDA approval by late 2026 with a potential U.S. launch in 2027.
Frequently Asked Questions about Barclays slashes sales forecasts for Novo's CagriSema by more than 80%
1What is the main topic?
Barclays cut its peak sales forecast for Novo Nordisk’s obesity drug CagriSema to $2 billion from $12 billion after disappointing late-stage trial results versus Lilly’s Zepbound.
2How did markets react?
Novo Nordisk shares fell around 16% following the data, while Eli Lilly rose roughly 5%, reflecting shifting expectations in the obesity drug race.
3What is the expected timeline for CagriSema?
Novo Nordisk expects a U.S. FDA decision in late 2026, with a potential market launch in 2027, though analysts now question the drug’s commercial traction.
