Finance
Barclays Sees 13–14 Million Bpd Oil Supply Loss From Prolonged Hormuz Disruption
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 26, 2026
3 min readLast updated: March 26, 2026
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Barclays warns that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could eliminate 13–14 million barrels per day from global oil supply, against demand of roughly 105 mbpd. Supply elasticity is weak amid underinvestment; IEA emergency reserves (400 million barrels) are being deployed to soften the shoc
Barclays Warns of Major Oil Supply Loss if Hormuz Disruption Persists
Impact and Uncertainty Surrounding Strait of Hormuz Closure
Barclays' Supply Loss Projections
March 26 (Reuters) - Barclays said on Thursday that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would likely lead to a 13-14 million barrels per day supply loss, noting that while the scale of the disruption is immense, so is the uncertainty around its duration.
Alternative Export Routes and Current Supply Disruption
Exports from Yanbu and Fujairah have picked up in recent weeks and assuming no threat to shipments from these ports, the bank sees a supply disruption of that magnitude as likely in the event of a prolonged closure of the Strait.
Global Oil Demand Context
The International Energy Agency estimates world oil demand this year will be about 104-105 million bpd.
Geopolitical Factors Influencing Oil Markets
Barclays added that the Iran war has triggered the largest geopolitical shock to energy markets since the 1990 Gulf War, driven by extremely tight spot fundamentals rather than speculative excess.
Diplomatic Efforts and Ceasefire Negotiations
U.S. President Donald Trump has said Iran is desperate to make a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting the Iranian foreign minister who said his country was reviewing a U.S. proposal but had no intention of holding talks to wind down the conflict.
Oil Price Forecasts and Scenarios
"Notwithstanding uncertainty about the ceasefire negotiations, in our base case, we expect traffic through the Strait to normalize by early April, which would be consistent with Brent averaging $85/b in 2026," Barclays said in a note.
Potential Price Increases if Disruptions Persist
However, if disruptions persist until end-April, 2026 Brent forwards could reprice to $100 per barrel, and in a more prolonged scenario stretching to end-May prices could rise to $110.
Current Market Reactions and Supply Challenges
Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, trapping roughly a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, boosting crude oil above $100 a barrel - and delivering sticker shock at the pumps.
Recent Oil Price Movements
Oil prices climbed over 2% on Thursday, with Brent futures trading at $104.36 a barrel by 0647 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $92.23 a barrel. [O/R]
Structural Weaknesses in Oil Supply
Barclays also said that supply elasticity is structurally weaker than in past shocks, with OPEC+ spare capacity under-delivering and non-OPEC+ growth, led by the U.S., steadily decelerating due to years of under-investment.
(Reporting by Swati Verma in Bengaluru. Editing by Mark Potter)
Key Takeaways
- •A sustained shutdown of the Hormuz corridor threatens to cut 13–14 mbpd of oil supply—around 13% of global demand.
- •Global demand in 2026 is projected to hover around 105 mbpd, per OPEC and IEA forecasts.
- •The International Energy Agency has ordered the release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves to mitigate immediate stresses.
Frequently Asked Questions about Barclays sees 13–14 million bpd oil supply loss from prolonged Hormuz disruption
1What does Barclays predict if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed?
Barclays predicts a prolonged closure could lead to a 13–14 million barrels per day oil supply loss.
2How would oil prices be impacted by a prolonged disruption?
Brent could average $85/b if normalized by April, but may rise to $100–$110/b if disruptions persist through May.
3Why is the current energy market shock significant?
Barclays states this is the largest geopolitical shock since the 1990 Gulf War, driven by tight fundamentals.
4What role do exports from Yanbu and Fujairah play?
Exports from Yanbu and Fujairah have picked up, partially offsetting supply loss if unaffected by threats.
5How has the Iran conflict affected global oil supply?
Iran’s blockade of the Strait has trapped about a fifth of the world's oil and LNG supplies, boosting prices.
