Finance
Asml Shares Fall on US Congress Plan to Further Restrict China Exports
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on April 7, 2026
2 min readLast updated: April 7, 2026
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ASML shares dropped over 4% on April 7 as U.S. lawmakers proposed new export restrictions targeting sales and servicing of DUV lithography tools to China, potentially reducing China’s share of its revenue—which could fall to ~20% in 2026—from 33% in 2025.
ASML Shares Drop After US Lawmakers Propose New China Export Restrictions
Market Reaction and Analyst Perspectives on Proposed Export Restrictions
AMSTERDAM, April 7 (Reuters) - Shares of computer chip equipment maker ASML dipped on Tuesday, the first trading day after U.S. lawmakers last week proposed a law that could further restrict the company's sales to China.
Analysts said the bill, if enacted by the U.S. and enforced by the Netherlands, could lead to the first new restrictions on ASML since September 2024, blocking sales and the servicing of its DUV immersion lithography tools to customers in China.
ASML’s Position in the Chip Equipment Market
ASML is the dominant maker of such tools that are used to create the circuitry of chips, though it faces competition from Nikon of Japan and Chinese firm SMEE.
Analyst Reactions to the Proposed Legislation
"We view this prospect negatively" Citi analysts said in a note.
Shares dropped by as much as 4.7% before recovering slightly. They were 4.1% lower at 1,114 euros in Amsterdam by 1100 GMT. ASML declined comment and the Dutch government said it is not up to the Netherlands to comment on proposals by the U.S. legislature.
Differing Analyst Views on Financial Impact
Opinions on the financial impact varied. ASML has forecast its sales in China at 20% of its total in 2026, but sales of older machines would not be affected.
Analyst Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam estimated the new rules could weaken ASML sales by a "single digit" percentage.
JPMorgan analyst Sandeep Deshpande said ASML's EPS could be reduced by up to 10%. He also said ASML's sales to other regions would "increase considerably, though not offsetting the lost China revenue," as non-Chinese chipmakers increase their capacity to compensate. The biggest impact would be on global markets, he wrote in a note.
Potential Global Market Consequences
"The current tight capacity for chips in multiple markets would get much worse with these restrictions," he said.
(Reporting by Toby Sterling and Nathan Vifflin; editing by Barbara Lewis)
Key Takeaways
- •New U.S. Congressional bill may block ASML’s DUV tool sales and servicing in China, the first major restrictions since Sept 2024.
- •ASML expects China revenues to fall to around 20% in 2026, down from ~33% in 2025, due to export controls and normalization of demand.
- •Analysts estimate revenue and EPS impacts: single-digit percentage sales drop (Degroof Petercam) and up to 10% EPS reduction (JPMorgan), with other regions partially offsetting lost China demand.
Frequently Asked Questions about ASML shares fall on US Congress plan to further restrict China exports
1Why did ASML shares fall after the US Congress plan?
ASML shares dropped due to a proposed US law that could further restrict the company's sales and servicing of chip equipment to China.
2How much of ASML’s sales come from China?
ASML has forecasted that 20% of its total sales in 2026 will come from China.
3What could be the financial impact of the proposed export restrictions on ASML?
Analysts estimate ASML’s sales could weaken by a single digit percentage, with potential EPS reduction up to 10%.
4Will sales of all ASML machines be affected by the new restrictions?
No, the restrictions would impact mainly the servicing and sales of DUV immersion lithography tools; sales of older machines are not expected to be affected.
5How might the proposed restrictions impact global chip markets?
The restrictions could worsen the current tight capacity for chips in multiple global markets, as noted by analysts.
