Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 23, 2026
2 min readLast updated: March 23, 2026
Add as preferred source on GoogleThe ECB estimates AI could add over 4 percentage points to euro‑area productivity growth over 10 years—depending on adoption speed—but warns that high energy costs and Europe’s weaker innovation ecosystem could limit gains.
By Francesco Canepa
FRANKFURT, March 23 (Reuters) - Artificial intelligence could lift euro zone productivity growth by more than 4 percentage points over the next decade, although a prolonged energy shock could slow progress, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said on Monday.
While the ECB's immediate focus is the conflict in the Middle East and what it may mean for inflation, Lane highlighted AI as a key long-term driver for the bloc's economic fortunes.
He told an ECB conference the potential payoff from AI adoption would vary widely depending on how fast the technology spread.
A take-up rate in line with previous innovations such as the internet would deliver at least 1.5 percentage points of extra productivity growth in 10 years, Lane said. But if adoption continued at today's pace and reached at least half the economy, the gain could exceed 4 percentage points.
"The greatest impact will be achieved if AI materially boosts the pace of innovation, as rather than just boosting the level of productivity, this could increase the long-run potential growth rate," Lane said.
He warned, however, that persistently high fuel costs curb progress in building new AI models and curtail the adoption rate too, given the technology's high energy use.
EUROPE IS BEHIND
Europe is starting from behind, Lane noted. Only about 3% of euro-area patents relate to AI, compared with 9% in the United States.
And euro zone residents are spending nearly 250 billion euros ($290 billion) a year on royalties to foreign patent-holders — mostly U.S.-based — underscoring the bloc’s dependence on imported technology.
Lane partly blamed Europe’s shallower capital markets, which he said constrain the investment needed to scale up innovation.
"Ensuring broad access to finance, supporting diffusion among smaller firms and investing in skills and complementary intangible assets will be central to realising AI’s potential while limiting adjustment costs," he said.
($1 = 0.8617 euros)
(Reporting by Francesco Canepa, editing by Andrei Khalip)
According to the ECB, AI could lift euro area productivity growth by more than 4 percentage points over the next decade.
Persistently high energy costs and slower technology adoption could limit the productivity gains from AI.
Only about 3% of euro-area patents relate to AI compared with 9% in the United States.
Ensuring broad access to finance, supporting adoption among smaller firms, and investing in skills are key to realizing AI's potential.
The ECB is currently focused on the conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on inflation.
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