Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on January 17, 2025
By Andy Sullivan
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The day before he left the White House in 2021, Donald Trump vowed to remain a force in U.S. politics. "The movement we started is only just beginning," he said in a farewell video.
What might have seemed then to be wishful thinking now sounds like a prophecy.
Trump left office a defeated and isolated figure, banned from social media and repudiated by fellow Republicans in his own administration. Congress, shaken by his supporters' Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, was preparing a second impeachment trial against him.
Trump, 78, returns to the presidency on Monday more powerful than ever. He faces fewer guardrails as he pursues a norm-shattering agenda that is already upending Washington and unsettling the world.
The former real-estate developer, whose first elected office was the White House, now plausibly stands as the defining political figure of the early 21st century.
"He doesn't look like he was rejected. It looks like his version of Republican politics is as mainstream as it gets," said Princeton University history professor Julian Zelizer.
Unlike the start of his first term in 2017, Trump is buttressed by a clear electoral victory, having won both the Electoral College and popular vote.
Aides who last time sought to blunt his most aggressive impulses have been replaced by bare-knuckled loyalists eager to bend Washington to his will. Skeptics within his Republican Party have been driven into retirement, leaving allies who are eager to push his proposals through Congress. A sympathetic Supreme Court, a third of whom are Trump appointees, has already ruled that he will have wide latitude to do what he wants.
Silicon Valley titans who once kept their distance are competing to win his favor. The world's richest person, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, has volunteered to help Trump overhaul the government, while Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos will feature prominently at his swearing-in ceremony.
Trump, a former reality TV star, can also count on a network of sympathetic podcasters and influencers to amplify his message, while established media outlets struggle with shrinking audiences. His freewheeling October interview with podcaster Joe Rogan has been viewed 54 million times on YouTube, approaching the 67 million who watched his televised debate with Democratic presidential rival Kamala Harris.
Trump inherits a strong economy and a quiet southern border, with migrant arrests lower in December than when he left office.
Nonetheless, he has said he plans to impose steep tariffs on trading partners and deport millions of immigrants who entered the country illegally - policies that could reignite inflation and pressure stock prices, which Trump follows closely.
One possible check on his ambitions is the bond market, where investors could be spooked if the $36 trillion national debt increases dramatically or Congress struggles to raise the borrowing limit. Markets could also react poorly if he does not follow through on his promise to extend his 2017 tax cuts and cut government spending.
FLORIDA MAN
When Trump launched his third consecutive presidential bid from his Florida estate in November 2022, his fortunes were at an ebb. Many of his preferred congressional candidates had lost in midterm elections and he faced multiple criminal and civil investigations. Rivals like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis were sparking enthusiasm from Republicans eager to move on from the Trump years. "Florida Man Makes Announcement," the New York Post wrote dismissively of Trump.
But Republican voters rallied to Trump following his criminal indictment in March 2023 for covering up a hush money payment to a porn star, donations poured in and he easily secured the party's nomination. Broader events played in his favor as well, as voters grew dissatisfied with Democratic President Joe Biden's response to spiraling prices and illegal immigration. Biden dropped his reelection bid in July 2024 following a disastrous debate performance, leaving Harris little time to make her own case to voters.
Trump also turned misfortune to his advantage, portraying his legal woes as a campaign of political persecution and mounting a run-out-the-clock defense that ultimately forced federal prosecutors to drop their two cases, including one for election interference, against him. When he was grazed by a would-be assassin's bullet in July, Trump raised his fist and shouted "Fight! Fight! Fight!", creating one of the year's defining images.
In his November victory, Trump made inroads with traditional Democratic constituencies such as young people and Hispanics. Voters shrugged off his felony convictions and Democrats' warning that a candidate who refused to acknowledge his 2020 defeat posed an ongoing threat to democracy.
Trump has threatened to purge the federal workforce and enlist the Justice Department to harass his political enemies. He has held out the possibility that he could refuse to spend money appropriated by Congress, which could lead to a constitutional showdown.
He has embraced an agenda of territorial expansion - such as buying Greenland from Denmark and asserting control over the Panama Canal - raising the possibility that his second White House term could be as chaotic as his first.
But even before he takes the oath of office on Monday, Trump has already reshaped Washington. Republicans and Democrats alike now share his more confrontational approach to China and his skepticism of free trade agreements. Proposed cuts to popular health and retirement programs, once a staple of Republican budget proposals, are off the table. Biden kept many of Trump's tariffs in place and has worked to reduce U.S. reliance on foreign-made semiconductors.
Once an interloper in U.S. politics, Trump has come to define it.
"It's clear that since 2015 we've been in the Trump era," said Matthew Continetti, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. "It's not over yet."
(Reporting by Andy Sullivan; Editing by Scott Malone and Howard Goller)
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