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Moody's maintains 'Ca' rating on Ukraine as effects of war continue
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on May 30, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 23, 2026
Global Banking & Finance Review®
Company
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on May 30, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 23, 2026
Moody's maintains Ukraine's 'Ca' rating amid war effects, citing economic challenges and uncertain peace talks with Russia.
(Reuters) -Credit ratings agency Moody's affirmed Ukraine's 'Ca' rating on Friday, citing the long-lasting impact of the war with Russia on its economy and finances, as well as uncertainties over peace negotiations with Moscow.
"Growth prospects remain subdued as challenging security conditions, labour shortages and attacks on energy infrastructure continue," Moody's said, maintaining its outlook for Ukraine at stable.
The ratings agency on its website defines 'Ca' rating obligations as "highly speculative and are likely in, or very near, default, with some prospect of recovery in principal and interest".
On Friday, Ukraine's finance ministry said it would not be paying more than half a billion dollars due to holders of its GDP warrants, marking the first payment default since it created the instruments.
Kyiv also resisted U.S. and Russian pressure to commit to attending another round of peace talks on June 2, saying it first needed to see Russian proposals.
Ukraine's economy cratered after Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, falling close to 30%. Although it staged modest growth in 2023 and 2024, its gross domestic product (GDP) remains below the pre-war level as it extensively restructures its debt.
Moody's forecast Ukraine's GDP growth to slow to 2.5% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024, adding that it expects economic growth to remain "subdued" in 2026 and 2027.
Rival ratings agency Fitch last week affirmed Ukraine's long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating at "Restricted Default", as the nation continues to navigate diplomatic tensions and a significant erosion of its finances.
(Reporting by Khusbu Jena and Unnamalai L in Bengaluru; Writing by Pushkala Aripaka; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
Moody's affirmed Ukraine's 'Ca' rating, indicating highly speculative obligations likely in or near default.
Ukraine's economy has faced significant challenges due to the war, with growth prospects remaining subdued due to security issues and labor shortages.
Moody's forecasts Ukraine's GDP growth to slow to 2.5% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024, with subdued growth expected in the following years.
Ukraine's finance ministry announced it would not pay more than half a billion dollars to holders of its GDP warrants, marking its first payment default.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine's economy has contracted by nearly 30%, although there was modest growth in 2023 and 2024.
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