Swedish grid operator forecasts less severe power crunch this winter

OSLO (Reuters) -Sweden is expected to face less of a crunch on power supply this winter than in previous years as higher energy prices have curbed demand, though southern Sweden remains in deficit, grid operator Svenska Kraftnat said on Monday.

The transmission system operator (TSO) estimated a power balance during peak load hours of 600 megawatt hours (MWh) per hour under normal temperatures but warned of a 600 MWh/h deficit in the event of a colder-than-usual winter.

In theory, this means Sweden will not depend on net imports to cover peak demand hours, it said in its 2025 report on the power balance in the Swedish market.

The TSO publishes a new report every year and previously forecast a 3,800 MWh/h deficit for the 2025/26 winter, but has now lowered its expectations for peak load demand, it said.

"This is largely due to increased price awareness among electricity customers," Eva Vitell, head of Svenska Kraftnat's system division, said in a statement.

Electricity demand in Sweden totalled 135 terawatt hours (TWh) in the past three years, down from around 140 TWh in the years before the 2022 energy crisis, which resulted in record-high prices, it said.

Consumption last winter - which meteorologists described as unusually mild - peaked at 22,500 MWh/h on January 13, the lowest winter peak since records began in 1997/98, the TSO said.

While southern Sweden has a generation capacity deficit, northern Sweden has seen a boom in wind power installations creating a power surplus.

Svenska Kraftnat forecast a power balance in southern Sweden of -7,700 MWh/h this winter in the case of normal temperatures, with the shortfall expected to be offset by power flows from northern Sweden and imports from neighbouring countries.

(Reporting by Nora Buli; Editing by Anna Ringstrom and Jacqueline Wong)