Ukraine's Grain Harvest Forecast for 2025 Predicts 10% Decline

By Pavel Polityuk

KYIV (Reuters) -Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest may decrease by 10% to around 51 million metric tons compared to 56.7 million tons in 2024, according to the most pessimistic estimates, Ukrainian agriculture minister Vitaliy Koval said on Tuesday.

Ukraine is a global producer of grains and oilseeds, but the harvest is highly dependent on favourable weather conditions during both the autumn sowing and spring months.

Military risks associated with the ongoing Russian invasion are also reducing output as farmers are afraid or unable to plant and harvest crops. Significant areas have also been seized or mined.

"A difficult season awaits us. An abnormally warm winter, first there was no humidity, then prolonged rains delayed the sowing campaign in some regions for two weeks. Therefore, we expect a decrease in the harvest," Koval told Reuters.

"The most negative forecast is minus 10%. According to expectations the harvest of grain is minus 10%, oilseeds minus 5%. It's definitely not a failure, but God willing we will harvest everything," he said.

Giving the first detailed forecast, for 2025 Koval said Ukraine could harvest around 26 million tons of corn, 4.5 million tons of barley, 1.5 million tons of minor grains, 11.5 million tons of sunflower seeds, and 11 million tons of sugar beet.

He said the wheat harvest may be between 20 and 22 million tons and the final figure would depend on weather and war-related factors.

Koval said the 2025 overall oilseed crop could decrease to around 20.16 million tons from 21.18 in 2024, partially due to a decrease in the rapeseed crop by 600,000 tons.

Ukraine is the world's largest sunflower oil exporter.

The minister declined to provide Ukraine's 2025/26 grain export forecast, based on an as yet unclear final harvest figure, but analysts say exports will total 40.9 million tons, including 15 to 15.5 million tons of wheat.

Analyst ASAP Agri said last week Ukraine's wheat exports were expected to fall in the 2025/26 July-June season due to possible changes in the EU's import policy, uncertain harvest prospects and a better crop outlook in EU importing countries.

(Reporting by Pavel Polityuk; editing by David Evans)