Morning Bid: Risk Flows as Trade Talks Unclog

Morning Bid: Risk flows as trade talks unclog

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.

It was already a risk-on start to the week in Asia when news broke trade talks between the United States and Canada were back on after Prime Minister Carney agreed to rescind a digital tax as demanded by President Trump. The new deadline for this effort is July 21, extending Trump's original July 9 date.

The latter looks like being extended for other talks as well, with Treasury Secretary Bessent last week suggesting they might be done by the September 1 Labor Day holiday.

Wall Street futures are up around 0.4% at record highs as investors pile into mega caps for the new quarter, while European and German stock futures firmed around 0.3%. Most Asian markets are also in the black, helped by a further decline in oil prices as the Mideast ceasefire holds.

Investors are keeping a wary eye on the progress of a huge U.S. tax-cutting and spending bill slowly making its way through the Senate, with signs it may not make it by Trump's preferred July 4 deadline. Stalling for time, the Democrats are making clerks read out every line in the 940-page bill, likely making them the only ones who know what's in it.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill will add $3.3 trillion to the nation's debt over a decade, a further test of foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries and another blow to the cause of U.S. exceptionalism.

The impact has been most evident in the dollar, with the euro clocking gains of 1.7% last week. James Reilly, an analyst at Capital Economics, noted the dollar had fallen by more at this stage in the year than in any previous year since the U.S. moved to a free-floating exchange rate in 1973.

That slide must be pressuring foreign investors to hedge their dollar exposure, which creates yet more selling in a bearish cycle for the currency.

Neither has it been helped by investors ratcheting up expectations for Federal Reserve policy easing to 65 basis points for the rest of the year. A July move is still an outside chance, though that might change if the payrolls report on Thursday springs a downside surprise. In particular, a rise in the jobless rate above 4.3% would take it to levels not seen since late 2021 and would surely ring alarm bells at the Fed.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

- European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, begins

- German, Italian CPI data

- Fed's Bostic and Goolsbee speak

(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)