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Exclusive-Russia's September oil and gas budget revenue seen falling 23%
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on September 18, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 21, 2026
Global Banking and Finance Review
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Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on September 18, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 21, 2026
Russia's oil and gas revenue is set to fall by 23% in September, affecting its economy and budget planning amid rising military spending.
MOSCOW (Reuters) -Russia's state oil and gas sales in September are set to fall by around 23% from a year earlier on lower prices and a stronger rouble, Reuters calculations show, hitting Moscow's biggest source of revenue.
The projected decline comes as President Vladimir Putin and his economic officials are preparing Russia's 2026 budget while funding its highest military spending since the Cold War.
Russia will receive 592 billion roubles ($7.11 billion) in September, according to Reuters calculations based on oil and gas production data, refining, and supplies on domestic and international markets.
Its revenue for the first nine months is set to fall by 20.5% to 6.62 trillion roubles, the calculations show.
Month on month, September's oil and gas revenue is set to rise by 17%, according to Reuters estimates, helped by lower government subsidies owed to refineries.
Oil and gas revenue accounts for up to a quarter of Russia's budget and is the most important source of cash for Moscow's war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year.
The finance ministry is due to present a draft 2026 budget to parliament by the end of September.
After defying expectations of a recession in 2023 and 2024, Russia's economy is slowing and its federal budget deficit is rising.
Russia has raised personal income and corporate taxes this year, but the government in May still had to triple its federal budget deficit estimate to 1.7% of gross domestic product.
This year's official growth forecasts have been slashed and some key bankers and officials have warned that the economy is heading towards stagnation or recession.
The finance ministry is scheduled to publish its September estimates of oil and gas revenue on October 3.
Oil and gas revenue totalled 11.13 trillion roubles last year.
The ministry initially forecast a 2025 total of 10.94 trillion - or some 5% of gross domestic product - but has lowered that to 8.32 trillion roubles.
The finance ministry on Thursday announced a budget change to go into effect next year aimed at shielding the budget from oil price fluctuations and Western sanctions.
($1 = 83.2500 roubles)
(Reporting by Reuters; editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Jason Neely)
Russia's oil and gas revenue is projected to fall by around 23% in September compared to the previous year, primarily due to lower prices and a stronger rouble.
Oil and gas revenue accounts for up to a quarter of Russia's budget and is crucial for funding military operations in Ukraine, which is now in its fourth year.
The finance ministry has lowered its forecast for 2025 oil and gas revenue from 10.94 trillion roubles to 8.32 trillion roubles, reflecting a significant adjustment in expectations.
In response to rising budget deficits, Russia has raised personal income and corporate taxes this year while also preparing a draft budget for 2026.
The finance ministry is scheduled to release its estimates for September oil and gas revenue on October 3.
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