Trade quarrels to boost Russia-China agricultural trade, lobbies and analysts say

By Olga Popova

MOSCOW (Reuters) - China is expected to step up imports of agricultural products from Russia in response to growing trade conflict with the U.S. and Canada, with trade in peas set to be one of the first to pick up.

Last week China imposed import levies covering $21 billion worth of American agricultural and food products and on Saturday announced tariffs on some Canadian products including peas.

"This is a great opportunity for Russia to replace a competitor in the Chinese market, but we have to remember that China has been buying lots of higher quality peas from Canada, so not all our peas will do," Sergei Pluzhnikov, head of Russian Pulses Analytics said.

China became the largest importer of Russian yellow peas in the 2023/24 season, with shipments totalling 1.13 million tons, Rusgrain reported.

Russia does not publish official export statistics.

Some competition could come from Ukraine which earlier this month signed an agreement with China which could pave the way for pea exports.

Russian wheat could also see a growth in sales helping the country move towards its goal of increasing exports of agricultural products by 50 per cent by 2030 relative to 2021. China is one of its most important customers.

WHEAT HOPES

The head of analysis at grain shipment company Rusagrotrans, Igor Pavensky, suggested that the new U.S. tariffs could lead to an expansion of China's imports of Russian spring wheat, possibly before the end of the 2024/25 season (July/June)

Russia has overtaken the U.S. in wheat supplies for the first time this season, having shipped 275,000 tons to China, he noted.

U.S. wheat exports to China so far this season totalled only 139,100 tons, as of Feb. 27, down from 995,600 tons in the same period a year ago, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

Wheat has been flowing from Siberia, which had accumulated high stocks, to Black Sea ports at a record pace aided by transport subsidies.

"It is possible that in case of intensified purchases even before the end of the current season, China will start buying large shiploads of Russian wheat from the Black Sea ports", he said.

Previously, wheat was exported to China almost entirely through border crossings and ports of the Far East.

Andrei Sizov, head of the SovEcon agency, said trade conflict with the U.S. could help accelerate China's long-awaited decision to allow imports of Russian winter wheat.

China banned winter wheat imports in the mid-1970s because of the presence of a fungal disease which can reduce crop yields and quality in some parts of Russia.

There have been talks about lifting the ban but it remains in place.

China does allowed spring wheat imports from Russia.

Winter wheat, which has higher yields and is more profitable for farmers, accounts for about 70% of Russia’s total wheat harvest.

(Reporting by Olga Popova, Editing by Angus MacSwan)