Romanian hard-right frontrunner Simion leads opinion poll before vote run-off

BUCHAREST (Reuters) - Romania's hard-right presidential frontrunner George Simion will win the May 18 run-off vote against centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, an opinion survey showed on Wednesday, as the two clashed over worldviews and deficits in a debate.

The eurosceptic Simion decisively swept the first round of the ballot on Sunday, with some 41% of votes, triggering the resignation of leftist Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu and the collapse of the pro-Western coalition government.

Dan, running as an independent, won 21% of votes, and analysts said he will struggle to sway voters away from Crin Antonescu, the centrist backed by the government who ranked third, and Victor Ponta, a former leftist prime minister turned conservative nationalist who came fourth.

An opinion survey conducted by polling institute Verifield and commissioned by Dan showed Simion was on course to secure 54.8% of votes in the run-off to Dan's 45.2%.

It surveyed 944 people on May 6 and had a margin of error of 3.19%. Almost one third of those surveyed said they were either not voting, were undecided between the two candidates, or declined to answer.

The Romanian leu has lost nearly 3% against the euro and Romania's 10-year bond yields surged by some 60 basis points since eurosceptic Simion's Sunday win.

Simion, 38, opposes military aid to neighbouring Ukraine, is critical of the EU leadership and says he is aligned with U.S. President Donald Trump's Make America Great Again movement.

Analysts have said a victory by Simion could isolate Romania, erode private investment and destabilise NATO's eastern flank, where Bucharest plays a key role in providing logistical support to Ukraine as it fights a three-year-old Russian invasion.

Dan, 55, running on an anti-corruption platform, is a staunch supporter of Romania's EU and NATO membership and of its continued help for Kyiv.

During an impromptu debate at a conference organised by one of the country's biggest trade unions, the two agreed that mainstream politicians had angered people through corruption and perceived incompetence, but disagreed over how to heal the rifts.

Simion called the political establishment "globalist progressive satanic" who say "yes to Brussels." He also said the EU should not seek to replace NATO from a defence standpoint.

Dan took a nuanced view, saying: "Of course we have had a political class that disrespected citizens. But the answer cannot be hatred that divides society."

The two also disagreed over how the next government - whose prime minister will be appointed by the new president - should deal with the largest budget deficit in the EU.

Simion ruled out tax hikes and said he would cut 500,000 jobs from the 1.3 million positions in the public sector over five years, but offered no alternative to cutting the deficit and avoiding a ratings downgrade.

Dan said the focus should be on enforcing reforms to tap European Union funds as well as ambitious state spending cuts.

(Reporting by Luiza Ilie; Editing by Leslie Adler)