In Romania vote, centrist mathematician Dan braces for tight battle with hard-right

By Luiza Ilie

BUCHAREST (Reuters) - Bucharest's centrist mayor Nicusor Dan, a quiet mathematician, will face off against the hard-right contender in Sunday's presidential run-off vote, trying to keep Romania on its pro-European Union path and cool market nerves by forming a government.

A recent survey showed Dan, 55, was neck-and-neck with eurosceptic frontrunner George Simion, who rode a wave of popular anger at mainstream parties to claim a first round win on May 4, triggering the collapse of the country's pro-Western government.

Whoever is elected president will need to nominate a prime minister and see a new government quickly installed to reduce Romania's budget deficit, the largest in the EU, reassure investors and avoid a credit rating downgrade.

"Romania cannot afford an adventure at this moment," Dan told 38-year-old Simion during a recent debate.

"Romania cannot afford to talk about early elections. Romania cannot afford to speak against foreign investors, saying that we will only accept the ones we want."

Dan has promised quick talks with pro-European, pro-NATO parties and has a track record of negotiating majorities as an independent two-term mayor of the Romanian capital city.

Simion, who opposes aid to Ukraine and is critical of the EU's leadership, has said he could not rule out snap parliamentary elections to get his desired prime minister and ruling majority.

Dan is a Sorbonne-educated mathematician with a history of activism against rampant real estate development and corruption before entering politics. Described as methodical and calm, and a family man, he often walks his daughter to school.

Staunchly pro-EU and NATO, he has said Romania's support for Ukraine was crucial for its own security against a growing Russian threat. He has promised to clamp down on corruption and reduce economic inequalities.

"This election isn't just about the president of Romania, but about Romania's entire direction and government over the next years," said Siegfried Muresan, a vice-chair of the EPP group in the European Parliament and a Romanian MEP.

"A pro-European president will find the power to install a pro-European government," he said.

Russia's war in Ukraine has cast Romania as a key stakeholder for EU trade on the Black Sea and an ally on NATO's eastern flank.

The president is in charge of Romania's defence council which decides on military aid and has oversight over foreign policy, with the power to veto EU votes that require unanimity among member states.

Whereas Dan has struck a chord with college-educated voters who live in large cities, Simion appeals to the working class diaspora, who are entitled to vote, and residents of small towns and villages, who are feeling left behind.

He is campaigning on a "Romania first" ticket, advocating conservative policies, euroscepticism and close alignment with the U.S. MAGA movement.

"Dan has mostly caught up to Simion, but he needs to address small towns and rural areas," said Sergiu Miscoiu, a political science professor at Babes-Bolyai University.

(Reporting by Luiza Ilie; additional reporting by Elizaveta Gladun; Editing by Alexandra Hudson)