Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on January 17, 2025
By Harshita Mary Varghese
(Reuters) - Netflix's big bet on sports events is expected to have driven more than 9 million subscriber additions in the holiday quarter, lifted by the success of the "Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson" boxing match and the debut of popular National Football League games.
The streaming pioneer, set to report results on Tuesday, has added more high-profile sports content to its platform in recent months to attract both younger viewers and advertising dollars following its blockbuster password-sharing crackdown.
More than 60 million households globally tuned in for the Tyson-Paul bout in November, while its NFL games on Christmas Day drew 26.5 million viewers on average in the United States.
Live sports provide "some stability for the advertising side and then from the subscription side, it just makes the account stickier for people who are already using Netflix," eMarketer analyst Ross Benes said.
Advertisers typically pay a premium for ad placements during live events, especially those with large and loyal audiences such as NFL games, making sports key to Netflix's goal of building out its ad-supported tier.
The company's subscriber growth in the last three months of 2024 also benefited from the return of the hit South Korean series "Squid Game," whose second season amassed a record 68 million views in its premiere week on the platform.
The 9.2 million subscribers Netflix potentially added in the fourth quarter would mark a big step up from the 5.1 million additions it saw in the third, but the figure is lower than the 13.1 million increase it posted a year ago, LSEG data showed.
This quarter will also be the last time Netflix reports subscriber additions, as the company emphasizes other performance metrics including revenue and profit - a change analysts attribute to slowing subscriber growth.
That will increase scrutiny of its advertising tier, which is widely seen as its next big growth driver.
Netflix "needs to give some confidence to the brands and marketers about how well it's doing in advertising," PP Foresight analyst Paolo Pescatore said.
Analysts also expect the company to raise the price of its standard tier, which currently costs $15.49 a month in the U.S., in the first half of the year to push more subscribers onto its ad tier. The offering is lucrative for the streamer as its commercials typically bring in higher revenue per user.
Ad revenue is expected at $528.9 million in the fourth quarter, according to the average of estimates from four analysts compiled by LSEG. Total revenue, meanwhile, is expected to increase 14.5% to $10.11 billion, growing at a slightly slower pace than the previous quarter.
STRONG 2025 CONTENT SLATE
Netflix shares ended last year with a gain of 83%, marking their best annual performance since 2015. The stock also outperformed legacy media rivals grappling with the decline of cable TV while aiming to improve streaming profitability.
The company recently traded at 35 times expected 12-month forward earnings, below its average of 39 over the past five years, according to LSEG.
Analysts say a strong content line-up in 2025 should help Netflix, widely seen as the winner of the streaming wars, build on last year's success.
The company streamed its first episode of wrestling program WWE Monday Night "Raw" earlier this month. Its 2025 line-up is also expected to include the final season of "Stranger Things," and the second season of Addams Family spin-off "Wednesday."
It has also recently acquired the rights to the Women's FIFA World Cup in 2027 and 2031.
"Clearly Netflix enters 2025 with their best programming slate ever," Pivotal Research analyst Jeff Wlodarczak said.
(Reporting by Harshita Mary Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Aditya Soni and Anil D'Silva)
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