Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on December 19, 2024
3 min readLast updated: January 27, 2026
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U.S. crude exports to Europe are predicted to drop in January due to increased freight rates and a narrowing WTI/Brent spread, affecting shipment economics.
By Georgina McCartney, Arathy Somasekhar and Enes Tunagur
HOUSTON/LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil exports to northwest Europe are likely to slip early next year after hitting a record high in November, as the arbitrage for transatlantic shipments has slammed shut and freight rates have climbed, analysts said this week.
The spread between U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude and Brent futures has narrowed to a discount of around $3.40 per barrel over the last two sessions, the smallest closing spread since October 2023. A narrower spread makes it less economic to ship barrels from the U.S. across the Atlantic.
"A discount of $4, in my opinion, is always the line in the sand between a big export number versus a small export number," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.
The tighter spread comes as freight rates have increased and inventories in the U.S. - including at the key storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma - have dropped to 23 million barrels, their lowest mid-December level in 17 years.
The decline in stockpiles means U.S. barrels are being priced to stay at home.
At the end of November, the WTI/Brent spread had widened to roughly $4.50 per barrel, encouraging more flows across the Atlantic Ocean to higher priced markets and driving U.S. crude exports higher.
But the spike in flows may be short lived. Freight rates for moving barrels from the U.S. Gulf Coast to northwest Europe have climbed roughly $1 from November to around $3.80 per barrel this month, according to data from commodity pricing firm Argus.
The narrowing WTI/Brent spread contributed to those higher freight rates which are being used to price shipments for late January arrival, according to Sparta Commodities analyst Neil Crosby.
"We would expect more limited U.S. to Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp flows in the short-term to emerge," Crosby said.
The inclusion of WTI Midland crude in the dated Brent index has meant that the spread between the two is increasingly correlated to freight rates, as the price of Dated Brent is set by WTI Midland on many trading days.
U.S. exports bound for Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hit a record high of 771,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, according to data from ship tracker Kpler. WTI priced at a steeper discount than $4 against Brent through most of October, according to LSEG, when those cargoes would have been booked, making those transatlantic flows more profitable.
(Reporting by Georgina McCartney and Arathy Somasekhar in Houston, Enes Tunagur in London; Editing by Liz Hampton and Sonali Paul)
The article discusses the expected decline in U.S. crude exports to Europe due to economic factors affecting shipping.
Exports are expected to fall due to a narrower WTI/Brent spread and increased freight rates.
Higher freight rates increase shipping costs, making exports less economically viable.
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