Morning Bid: Tariff plot twists lose their bite

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.

Is this the dog that didn't bark? That would be the question from Sherlock Holmes fans given the utter lack of market reaction to U.S. President Donald Trump's threatened doubling of steel and aluminium tariffs to 50%.

That policy shift by tweet came late Friday after markets shut, so there was some anticipation of an impact today, maybe a drop in the Canadian dollar given the scale of their steel exports to the U.S. Yet the loonie is actually firmer against a broadly softer greenback, while European share futures are off a shade and Wall St futures only modestly lower.

This could be the TACO meme in action as investors assume 'Trump always chickens out', though he's leaving it late with the new higher tariff supposed to go into effect on Wednesday. Then again, last minute cliffhangers work well on reality TV.

European Union negotiators weren't pleased with this latest plot twist and threatened retaliation in return, while also letting it be known that the court case decision against the April 2 tariffs gave them added "leverage".

Neither does Trump's latest rhetorical attack on China seem to be working, with Beijing sticking to its guns. If Trump is counting on a call from China's President Xi Jinping to sort things out, he might be waiting by the phone for a while.

It was also somewhat ironic hearing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent complaining that China was holding back vital products from the United States, given it was the U.S. that started a trade war with the specific aim of rebuffing Chinese imports.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaking in South Korea said tariffs meant there were downside risks to activity and unemployment, and upside risks to inflation. Yet he was still optimistic about the chance of "good news" interest rate cuts later this year, cementing his place as one of the more dovish Fed officials.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak later Monday, though limited to opening remarks to an international finance conference.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

* UK house prices, European PMIs, U.S. ISM factory survey * Fed Chair Powell gives opening remarks at the FederalReserve Board's International Finance Division 75th AnniversaryConference, while Chicago Fed Goolsbee and Dallas Fed Loganappear in Q&A's

(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Christopher Cushing)