Trading Day: Taking the positives from trade, China, Fed

ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - TRADING DAY

Making sense of the forces driving global markets

By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist 

Glass half full...probably

A late rally ensured Wall Street's three main indexes rose on Wednesday, as investors digested Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference after the central bank left interest rates on hold, a raft of stimulus measures from China and news that high-level U.S.-China trade talks will open on Saturday.

In my column today I shine a light on how the U.S. bond market's resilience has spurred hedge funds to build up their 'basis trade' bets, which are now comfortably back above the $1 trillion mark. More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves. 

I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at jamie.mcgeever@thomsonreuters.com. You can also follow me at @ReutersJamie and @reutersjamie.bsky.social. 

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.

1. Fed leaves rates unchanged, cites rising risk of higherinflation and unemployment 2. China injects 'tactical' monetary stimulus ahead of UStrade meeting 3. NEWSMAKER-China's trade tsar He Lifeng takes centrestage in U.S. tariff talks 4. Dollar confusion reigns amid 'strategic uncertainty':Mike Dolan 5. Investors look to soft data for direction amid tradepolicy chaos

Today's Key Market Moves

* The Nasdaq rises 0.3%, the S&P 500 ends up 0.4% and theDow climbs 0.7%. * Shares in Google parent company Alphabet sink 7.5% onApple's plan to add AI-powered search options to its Safari webbrowser, a blow to Google's search ad business. The technologyindex slides 0.5%. * Disney shares jump 10.8% on strong Q1 earnings andoutlook. * The dollar index rises 0.5%, gaining most against theyen and Aussie and Kiwi dollars. * European stocks fall 0.5%, dragged lower by the retailsector after euro zone retail sales fell more than expected inMarch. * China's two main stock indexes rise 0.6% and 0.8%, asinvestors cheer Beijing's latest stimulus measures and news thathigh-level U.S.-China trade talks will open on Saturday. * Oil resumes its recent decline, with Brent and WTI crudefutures settling around 1.5% lower on the day. * Gold falls more than 1%, pressured by a stronger dollarand cautious optimism around U.S.-China trade talks.

Taking the positives from trade, China, Fed

If ever a day in financial markets reflected the thick fog of uncertainty surrounding the global trade, growth and policy outlook, Wednesday was that day.

Investors initially welcomed the wave of policy easing measures from China and confirmation that U.S.-China trade talks will open this weekend. But skepticism soon set in that Washington and Beijing would make much progress. It's a welcome first step, but the road ahead could be long and difficult.

The Fed's decision was widely expected and Powell's press conference offered little clarity, leaving investors struggling for direction. If there was a thread running through markets, it was difficult to spot.

Wall Street rallied in the last half hour of trading after trading in the red most of the day, yet long-dated Treasuries rose after Powell flagged risks to growth. Gold fell, in part on easing U.S.-China trade tensions, yet oil fell on skepticism these talks will yield much.

Either way, U.S. Treasury Scott Bessent, who along with chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet China's economic tsar He Lifeng in Switzerland, characterized the meeting as the beginning of "negotiations". It's a start.

It will be interesting to see how markets in Asia, especially China, open on Thursday in a follow-on reaction to the trade developments and stimulus steps. Currency traders will note that China's central bank leaned against mounting downward pressure on the currency on Wednesday and set its daily fix at its strongest yuan level in a month.

$1 trillion basis trade has barely barked, let alone bitten

Amid all the uncertainty surrounding U.S. growth, Federal Reserve policy, and the attractiveness of the dollar, the U.S. bond market is remarkably tranquil, calling into question long-held fears about the massive 'basis trade'.

While Treasuries experienced a brief bout of volatility following the Trump administration's 'Liberation Day' tariffs last month, including a spike in long-term yields and dislocation in 30-year swap spreads, the $29 trillion market has withstood everything thrown at it. 

Indeed, positioning in Treasury futures has quietly risen in recent weeks and is now close to a record aggregate peak across two-, five- and 10-year contracts. In the five-year space, both 'long' and 'short' positions have never been higher. 

The Treasury futures market is where hedge funds operate the basis trade, an arbitrage that profits from making highly levered bets on tiny differences between the price of cash bonds and futures. 

Global financial authorities have repeatedly warned that, if suddenly unwound, these positions – levered up to 100 times – could pose a threat to financial stability, as sharp price swings could trigger a devastating dash for cash and scramble to cover.

But that hasn't happened yet, despite all the market volatility over the past month. 

Instead asset managers and leveraged funds are steadily building their 'long' and 'short' positions, respectively. Aggregate holdings across two-, five- and 10-year futures contracts are all comfortably above $1 trillion in notional terms. Speculators seem happy to continue peeling off the pips in the basis trade, and asset managers are happy to lock in yields between 3.80% and 4.20%. 

"It's maybe a little surprising how fast these positions are being rebuilt, but it shows a generally salient view leveraged investors have in the functioning of the repo and Treasury markets," says Steven Zeng at Deutsche Bank. 

SOLID FOUNDATIONS

Treasury market depth may be a bit thinner than normal but it's nowhere near crisis levels, and there's no sign of the funding stress of late 2018, or September 2019 when the Fed was forced to inject liquidity into the market.

The 'MOVE' index of implied Treasury market volatility has come down almost as quickly as it spiked in early April and is now below its average of the last three years. 

Overnight repo rates, which hedge funds can use to fund the basis trades, spiked at the height of the tariff turmoil a month ago, but that was an insignificant blip compared to the surges in 2018 and 2019. Repo rates are now in the middle of the Fed's 4.25-4.50% policy target range.

Meanwhile, New York Fed data shows that the volumes of overnight cash borrowed at the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) hit a record $2.8 trillion at the end of April. That suggests liquidity is ample, demand is strong and investors have confidence in this source of funding. These all appear to be signs of a well-functioning market.

True, there is some sign of elevated anxiety in the Treasury market. The 'term premium' - the risk premium investors demand for buying longer-dated bonds rather than rolling over short-dated loans - has risen to the highest in a decade.

And there is always the risk that a sharp spike in borrowing costs – perhaps driven by another policy surprise or twist in the ongoing trade war – could put the basis trade in peril. But then what? 

If things did start to unravel, the Federal Reserve or Treasury Department would almost certainly come in with a backstop to preserve financial stability and maintain bond market functioning.  

So despite the fearmongering, the $1 trillion 'basis trade' remains the dog that has barely barked, let alone bitten. Perhaps the deepest and most liquid market in the world is simply more robust than some Cassandras would have you believe. 

What could move markets tomorrow?

* Bank of Japan minutes from March 18-19 meeting * Taiwan trade (April) * Germany trade, industrial production (March) * Bank of England policy decision * U.S. weekly jobless claims * $25 billion auction of U.S. 30-year bonds * Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. (This story has been refiled to say technology index slides 0.5%, not 1%, in paragraph 11)

(By Jamie McGeever, editing by Nia Williams)