Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on April 7, 2025
3 min readLast updated: January 24, 2026
Tariffs may reduce US auto sales by 2 million in 2023, impacting affordability and market dynamics. Automakers adjust production as prices rise.
By Kalea Hall and Nora Eckert
DETROIT (Reuters) - U.S. and Canada auto sales could decline by 1.8 million vehicles this year and be stagnant over the next decade if the global trade war escalates, a Detroit-area automotive advisory firm forecasts.
If the current tariffs stay in place until 2035, sales of light-duty vehicles in the U.S. and Canada would be about 7 million units lower than the 24.6 million sales in a scenario with no trade conflicts and strong economic growth, Telemetry said on Monday in a forecast provided exclusively to Reuters.
President Donald Trump’s 25% automotive import tariffs went into effect April 3. Vehicles made in Mexico and Canada face the levy, but automakers compliant with the terms of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement can deduct the value of U.S. content. The Trump administration has also imposed reciprocal tariffs of varying rates on different countries, which were not applied to Canada and Mexico.
The tariffs have pressured automakers to make production changes with General Motors increasing truck output at an Indiana plant and Stellantis, maker of Ram trucks and Jeeps, temporarily shutting down production at two plants in Mexico and in Canada, affecting five U.S. facilities that are connected to them.
Automakers including Ford Motor and Stellantis upped their incentive offers to ease consumers’ concerns about the duties adding to vehicle prices. Analysts have projected that sustained tariffs will increase prices by thousands of dollars, and automakers have warned the same.
“Vehicle affordability is already a major issue for consumers,” said Sam Abuelsamid, vice president of insights at Telemetry.
On average, new vehicles cost nearly $50,000 and interest rates on vehicle loans have increased since the pandemic.
“With sales going down, you're going to have layoffs,” Abuelsamid said. “And even to the degree that some production shifts to the U.S., it's not going to be enough to offset the lost employment from higher costs and lower sales.”
Although the rate of EV sales growth has slowed in recent years, Telemetry expects battery electric vehicles to be the most common powertrain across the globe in a decade, with 40.5 million vehicles sold.
The firm expects BEV volumes in Canada and the U.S. to reach 8.8 million units in a scenario with no trade conflicts and strong economic growth, especially as options such as extended range EVs become more prevalent.
(Reporting by Kalea Hall and Nora Eckert in Detroit; Editing by Leslie Adler)
The article discusses the impact of tariffs on US auto sales, predicting a decline of 2 million vehicles in 2023.
Automakers are adjusting production and offering incentives to counter rising vehicle prices due to tariffs.
Despite current challenges, BEV sales are expected to grow, with 40.5 million units projected globally in a decade.
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